@article {9410,
	title = {Who can predict their own demise? Heterogeneity in the accuracy and value of longevity expectations},
	journal = {The Journal of the Economics of Ageing},
	year = {2017},
	type = {Journal},
	abstract = {Inaccurate longevity expectations can result in suboptimal lifecycle planning with negative consequences for wellbeing in old age. We evaluate the accuracy of expectations by comparing the subjective probability of living to 75 reported in the Health and Retirement Study with survival to that age. Outcomes are positively correlated with the subjective predictions. But the prediction errors are large. Even larger than if every respondent had reported a 50-50 chance of survival. The subjective predictions are less accurate than life table probabilities based on age and sex only. On average, the respondents underestimate their chances of survival by almost 9 percentage points, with women displaying greater downward bias. Predictions are least accurate, most poorly calibrated and most noisy among the least educated and least cognitively able. By and large, using the subjective predictions to take decisions would generate less value than if everyone were to decide on the basis of the mean survival rate, or even the life table probability. Despite the predictions of the least educated being the least accurate, they are not unambiguously the least valuable, although they are most prone to generating large losses from excessive pessimism and optimism.},
	keywords = {Cognitive Ability, Longevity, Self-reported health},
	issn = {2212828X},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jeoa.2017.10.003},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212828X16300512?via\%3Dihub},
	author = {Teresa Bago d{\textquoteright}Uva and Owen O{\textquoteright}Donnell and Eddy Van Doorslaer}
}
@article {5852,
	title = {Who Can Predict Their Own Demise? Accuracy of Longevity Expectations by Education and Cognition},
	year = {2015},
	institution = {Amsterdam, Netherlands, Tinbergen Institute},
	abstract = {Biased longevity expectations will lead to suboptimal decisions regarding saving, retirement, annuitization and health, with consequences for wellbeing in old age. Systematic differences in the accuracy of longevity expectations may partly explain heterogeneity in economic behaviour by education and cognitive functioning. Analysis of eight waves of the US Health and Retirement Study reveals that individuals with lower levels of education and cognitive functioning report survival probabilities that are less accurate in predicting their in-sample mortality. There is little evidence that the gradients in the veracity of expectations are due to the less educated and cognitively able responding less to changes in objective mortality risks. However, high school dropouts and the least cognitively able report survival probabilities that are less stable and display greater un explained variability. These disadvantaged groups appear to be less confident in their longevity beliefs, which is justified given that their expectations are less accurate.},
	keywords = {Demographics, Expectations, Health Conditions and Status},
	author = {Teresa Bago d{\textquoteright}Uva and Esen Erdogan-Ciftci and Owen O{\textquoteright}Donnell and Eddy Van Doorslaer}
}
