@article {11627, title = {Sample Selection Bias Due to Differential Mortality: A Supplementary Measure of Old-Age Poverty.}, journal = {Journal of Aging \& Social Policy}, volume = {34}, year = {2022}, pages = {496-514}, abstract = {

Traditional "head count" measures of poverty at advanced older ages understate the risk of falling into poverty because of survivorship bias due to the income-mortality gradient, which indicates that people in poverty have higher mortality rates than people with higher income. Survivorship bias is a form of sample selection bias. This paper presents a supplementary measure for poverty at older ages, based on an adaption of a model for correcting survivorship bias in rate of return data for mutual funds. Using U.S. longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) for 1996 and 2002-2012 for the same cohort, we develop a new estimate of poverty at older ages that suggests that traditional cross-sectional measures understate the risk of falling into poverty by roughly a quarter. This finding has important implications for social programs that relate to the causes and consequences of the selectivity bias.

}, keywords = {Poverty, survivorship bias}, issn = {1545-0821}, doi = {10.1080/08959420.2021.1926196}, author = {Leslie A. Muller and John A. Turner} } @article {7613, title = {Pensions in the Health and Retirement Study}, journal = {Industrial and Labor Relations Review}, volume = {64}, year = {2011}, pages = {620}, publisher = {64}, abstract = {Pensions in the Health and Retirement Study, by Alan L. Gustman, Thomas L. Steinmeier, and Nahid Tabatabai, is reviewed.}, keywords = {Demographics, Other, Pensions, Public Policy, Retirement Planning and Satisfaction}, author = {John A. Turner} } @article {10774, title = {Adjusting Social Security for Increasing Life Expectancy: Effects on Progressivity}, number = {WP$\#$2010-9}, year = {2010}, institution = {Center for Retirement Research at Boston College}, address = {Boston, MA}, abstract = {Achieving long-run Social Security solvency requires addressing rising life expectancy. Increasing the Full Retirement Age (FRA), while holding the Early Entitlement Age (EEA) fixed, could be effective but eventually will result in replacement rates that are viewed by many as too low. A possible policy to prop up replacement rates is to raise the EEA, which has been age 62 for more than 40 years. However, an increase in the EEA introduces unfairness because the variation in life expectancy across socioeconomic groups is positively correlated with lifetime income. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study to investigate how earnings relate to mortality risk and health limitations, this project explores the possibility of constructing a flexible FRA that could preserve or even enhance the progressivity of Social Security benefits. If life expectancy were correlated with lifetime income, Social Security policy could use the AIME (Average Indexed Monthly Earnings) to target policies that are more equitable for people with both lower lifetime income and lower life expectancy. }, keywords = {Life Expectancy, Social Security, Social Security Eligibility}, url = {https://crr.bc.edu/working-papers/adjusting-social-security-for-increasing-life-expectancy-effects-on-progressivity/}, author = {Natalia A. Zhivan and Courtney Monk and John A. Turner} } @inbook {8646, title = {Human Capital Risk and Pension Outcomes}, booktitle = {Evaluating the Financial Performance of Pension Funds}, year = {2010}, pages = {119-151}, publisher = {World Bank}, organization = {World Bank}, address = {Washington, DC}, keywords = {Older Adults, Pensions, Retirement Planning and Satisfaction, Risk Factors}, author = {Olivia S. Mitchell and John A. Turner} }