@article {5606,
	title = {Modeling Lifetime Earnings Paths: Hypothetical versus Actual Workers},
	year = {2004},
	institution = {University of Pennsylvania, Boettner Center for Pe, Pension Research Council WP 2004-3},
	abstract = {To assess the distributional effects of social security reform proposals, it is essential to have good information on real-world workers  lifetime earnings trajectories. Until recently, however, policymakers have relied on hypothetical earnings profiles for policy analysis. We use actual lifetime earnings data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to compare actual workers  covered earnings profiles to these hypothetical profiles. We show that the hypothetical profiles do not track earnings patterns of current retirees; thus lifetime pay levels are much higher than for most HRS workers. Therefore, using hypothetical profiles could misrepresent benefits paid and taxes collected under such reforms.},
	keywords = {Net Worth and Assets, Pensions, Social Security},
	author = {Olivia S. Mitchell and John W R Phillips and Au, Andrew}
}
@article {5547,
	title = {Retirement Wealth and Lifetime Earnings Variability},
	number = {WP2003-04},
	year = {2003},
	note = {RDA},
	institution = {University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School},
	address = {Philadelphia},
	abstract = {This paper explores understand how earnings variability influences peoples{\textquoteright} retirement preparedness by influencing their accumulated wealth levels as of retirement age. Prior research has demonstrated that the US average household nearing retirement would need to save substantially more in order to preserve consumption in old age. While some socioeconomic factors have been suggested that might explain shortfalls, previous studies have not assessed the role of earnings variability over the lifetime as a potential explanation for poor retirement prospects. Thus two workers having identical levels of average lifetime earnings might have had very different patterns of earnings variability over their lifetimes. Such differences could translate into quite different retirement wealth outcomes. We evaluate the effect of earnings variability on retirement wealth using information supplied by respondents to the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). This is a rich and nationally representative dataset on Americans on the verge of retirement, with responses linked to administrative records from the Social Security Administration. Our research illuminates key links between lifetime earnings variability and retirement wealth.},
	keywords = {Net Worth and Assets, Social Security},
	url = {https://pensionresearchcouncil.wharton.upenn.edu/publications/papers-2018/retirement-wealth-and-lifetime-earnings-variability/},
	author = {Olivia S. Mitchell and John W R Phillips and Au, Andrew and McCarthy, David}
}
