@article {5305,
	title = {The Impact of Demographics on Housing and Non-Housing Wealth in the United States},
	number = {4666},
	year = {1994},
	note = {ProCite field 8 : U CA, Berkeley and NBER; U CA, Berkeley and NBER},
	institution = {The National Bureau of Economic Research},
	address = {Cambridge},
	abstract = {Equity in housing is a major component of household wealth in  the United  States. Steady gains in housing prices over the last several  decades have generated large potential gains in household wealth  among homeowners.  Mankiw and Weil (1989) and McFadden (1993b)  have argued that the aging of the U.S. population is likely to  induce substantial declines in housing prices, resulting in  capital losses for future elderly generations.  However, if  households can anticipate changes in housing prices, and if they  adjust their non-housing savings accordingly, then welfare  losses in retirement could be mitigated. This paper focuses on  two questions: (1) Are housing prices forecastable from current  information on demographics and housing prices?; and (2) How are  household savings decisions affected by capital gains in  housing? We use metropolitan statistical area (MSA) level data  on housing prices and demographic trends during the 1980{\textquoteright}s and  find mixed evidence on the forecastability of housing prices.  Further, we use data on five-year savings rates from the Panel  Study of Income Dynamics and find no evidence that households  engage in changing their non-housing savings in response to  expectations about capital gains in housing. Thus, the projected  decline in housing prices could result in large welfare losses  to current homeowners and large intergenerational equity  differences.},
	keywords = {Adult children, Consumption and Savings, Demographics, Net Worth and Assets, Public Policy},
	url = {https://www.nber.org/papers/w4666},
	author = {Hoynes, Hilary and Daniel McFadden}
}
