@article {Arpino2018SmokingEA,
	title = {Smoking, education and the ability to predict own survival probabilities},
	journal = {Advances in Life Course Research},
	volume = {37},
	year = {2018},
	pages = {23-30},
	abstract = {Abstract Subjective survival probabilities (SSPs) are a good predictor of mortality, go beyond the aggregate description of survival defined by life tables, and are important for individuals{\textquoteright} decision-making in later life. However, despite the well-known mortality differentials by education as well as by characteristics such as smoking, little investigation has focused on SSPs by population sub-groups defined as a combination of these two characteristics. We use data on individuals aged 50{\textendash}89 from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) carried out in the USA between 2000 and 2012 (N = 23,895). Respondents were asked to assess the probability to survive to a given target age according to their age at the time of the survey. We assess how individuals{\textquoteright} SSPs and estimated objective survival probabilities (OSPs) vary by education and smoking and calculate, for each respondent, the gap between them. Consistently with real mortality patterns, smokers report the lowest SSPs in each of the three considered education groups. When comparing SSPs and OSPs we find that all groups tend to underestimate survival. Within each education group, past smokers better predict their survival probability. Current smokers with low education show the highest probability to overestimate their survival. Smokers are aware of their lower life expectancy. Still, a considerable proportion of them overestimate their survival probabilities, independently of their level of education.},
	keywords = {Education, Life Expectancy, Smoking},
	doi = {10.1016/J.ALCR.2018.06.001},
	author = {Bruno Arpino and Valeria Bordone and Sergei Scherbov}
}
@article {9869,
	title = {Smoking, education and the ability to predict own survival probabilities},
	journal = {Advances in Life Course Research},
	volume = {37},
	year = {2018},
	month = {Jan-09-2018},
	pages = {23 - 30},
	abstract = {Subjective survival probabilities (SSPs) are a good predictor of mortality, go beyond the aggregate description of survival defined by life tables, and are important for individuals{\textquoteright} decision-making in later life. However, despite the well-known mortality differentials by education as well as by characteristics such as smoking, little investigation has focused on SSPs by population sub-groups defined as a combination of these two characteristics. 

We use data on individuals aged 50-89 from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) carried out in the USA between 2000 and 2012 (N = 23,895). Respondents were asked to assess the probability to survive to a given target age according to their age at the time of the survey. We assess how individuals{\textquoteright} SSPs and estimated objective survival probabilities (OSPs) vary by education and smoking and calculate, for each respondent, the gap between them. 

Consistently with real mortality patterns, smokers report the lowest SSPs in each of the three considered education groups. When comparing SSPs and OSPs we find that all groups tend to underestimate survival. Within each education group, past smokers better predict their survival probability. Current smokers with low education show the highest probability to overestimate their survival. 

Smokers are aware of their lower life expectancy. Still, a considerable proportion of them overestimate their survival probabilities, independently of their level of education.},
	keywords = {Decision making, Education, Mortality, Probability, Smoking},
	issn = {10402608},
	doi = {10.1016/j.alcr.2018.06.001},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1040260818300650https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S1040260818300650?httpAccept=text/xmlhttps://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S1040260818300650?httpAccept=text/plain},
	author = {Bruno Arpino and Valeria Bordone and Sergei Scherbov}
}
@article {11438,
	title = {Smoking, Education and the Ability to Predict Own Survival Probabilities: An Observational Study on US Data},
	number = {WP-17-012},
	year = {2017},
	institution = {International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis },
	address = {Laxenburg, Austria},
	abstract = {Background: Subjective survival probabilities (SSPs) are a good predictor of mortality, go beyond the aggregate description of survival defined by life tables, and are important for individuals{\textquoteright} decision-making in later life. Despite the well-known mortality differentials by education as well as by characteristics such as smoking, little investigation has focused on SSPs by population sub-groups.

Methods: We use data on individuals aged 50-89 from the Health and Retirement Study(HRS) carried out in the USA between 2000 and 2012 (N=23,895). Each respondent was asked to assess the probability to survive to a given target age according to their age at the time of the survey. We assess how individuals{\textquoteright} SSPs and estimated objective survival
probabilities (OSPs) vary by education and smoking and calculate, for each respondent, the gap between them.

Results: Consistently with real mortality patterns, smokers report the lowest SSPs, both among lower and higher educated people. When comparing SSPs and OSPs we find that,
irrespectively of the smoking status, higher educated people are more likely to correctly predict their survival probabilities than their lower educated counterparts. Within both education groups, past smokers better predict their survival probability. Current smokers with low education show the highest probability to overestimate their survival probability.

Conclusions: Lower educated people and smokers are aware of their lower life expectancy. Still, they overestimate their survival probabilities more than the higher educated and non-smokers. Our findings emphasize the need for policy makers to disseminate information about the risks of smoking, targeting people with lower education.},
	keywords = {Education, Life Expectancy, Smoking},
	url = {http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14692/},
	author = {Bruno Arpino and Valeria Bordone and Sergei Scherbov}
}
@conference {8762,
	title = {Subjective Life Expectancy: Differences by Smoking, Education and Gender},
	booktitle = {European Population Conference 2016},
	year = {2016},
	abstract = {Despite the well-known higher mortality rates among smokers than non-smokers, little investigation has focused on subjective survival probabilities (SSP) by smoking behaviour. We give attention to sub-group differences in subjective survival probabilities, comparing subjective predictions to objective ones (SP) and accounting for the role of education.

We use biannual data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) from 2000 to 2012 carried out in the USA. Based on a sample of 23,895 respondents aged 50-89, we calculate, for each respondent, the {\textquotedblleft}gap{\textquotedblright} between SSP and the estimated survival probability (SP) from the HRS data.

We find that people currently smoking report lower survival probabilities especially if they are low educated. This is consistent with real mortality data that show higher mortality among these groups. When comparing subjective and objective survival probabilities we find that irrespectively of the smoking status, high educated people are more likely to correctly predict their survival probabilities than their low educated counterparts. Within education groups, people who smoked in the past are the best at predicting their mortality. Interestingly, those who currently smoke show the highest probability to incorrectly overestimate their survival probability (i.e., to underestimate the negative effect of smoking on mortality).},
	keywords = {Education, Gender Differences, Longevity, Mortality, Older Adults, Smoking},
	url = {http://epc2016.princeton.edu/uploads/160554},
	author = {Sergei Scherbov and Bruno Arpino and Valeria Bordone}
}
