TY - RPRT T1 - A behavioural gap in survival beliefs Y1 - 2021 A1 - Apicella, Giovanna A1 - De Giorgi, Enrico G. KW - longevity risk KW - mortality risk KW - sentiment KW - subjective beliefs AB - Life span uncertainty (longevity risk) impacts several economic decisions. Individuals can form and revise their survival beliefs making use of behavioural heuristics. We propose a model of sentiment, in which individuals are assumed to switch between optimistic and pessimistic expectations on their health. When optimism is persistent in the face of health shocks, or when individuals are more likely to change their sentiment from pessimistic to optimistic than otherwise, our model predicts survival under-estimation at young ages and over-estimation at old ages. An empirical analysis based on the longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) validates our model. ER -