TY - RPRT T1 - Modeling Lifetime Earnings Paths: Hypothetical versus Actual Workers Y1 - 2004 A1 - Olivia S. Mitchell A1 - John W R Phillips A1 - Au, Andrew KW - Net Worth and Assets KW - Pensions KW - Social Security AB - To assess the distributional effects of social security reform proposals, it is essential to have good information on real-world workers lifetime earnings trajectories. Until recently, however, policymakers have relied on hypothetical earnings profiles for policy analysis. We use actual lifetime earnings data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to compare actual workers covered earnings profiles to these hypothetical profiles. We show that the hypothetical profiles do not track earnings patterns of current retirees; thus lifetime pay levels are much higher than for most HRS workers. Therefore, using hypothetical profiles could misrepresent benefits paid and taxes collected under such reforms. PB - University of Pennsylvania, Boettner Center for Pe, Pension Research Council WP 2004-3 U4 - Pensions/Retirement Wealth/Social Security ER -