TY - RPRT T1 - Does Stock Market Performance Influence Retirement Expectations? Y1 - 2010 A1 - Gopi Shah Goda A1 - John B. Shoven A1 - Sita Nataraj Slavov KW - Consumption and Savings KW - Employment and Labor Force KW - Net Worth and Assets KW - Retirement Planning and Satisfaction KW - Women and Minorities AB - While media reports predicted substantial changes in labor supply behavior due to the sharp decline in the value of the stock market in October 2008, empirical evidence on the relationship between equity markets and retirement is mixed. We use panel data from the Health and Retirement Study to investigate the relationship between stock market performance and plans for retirement during 1998-2008, a period that includes the recent financial crisis, by exploiting within-year variation in the SandP 500 index across plausibly exogenous dates of interview. While we do detect a statistically significant negative relationship between the reported probability of working full-time at age 62 and the SandP 500 index in the most recent years of our study period, we do not find strong evidence that changes in equity markets influence changes in retirement plans over the period as a whole. We conclude that the higher probabilities of working reported in recent years were likely due to factors other than stock market performance, such as pessimism about economic security more generally. JF - NBER Working Paper PB - National Bureau of Economic Research CY - Cambridge, MA N1 - Using Smart Source Parsing National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc U4 - Economics of the Elderly/Economics of the Handicapped/Non-labor Market Discrimination/Retirement, Retirement Policies/stock Market/retirement Planning ER -