TY - RPRT T1 - Risk of Large Medical Expenditures at Older Ages and Their Impact on Economic Well-being Y1 - 2023 A1 - Susann Rohwedder A1 - Péter Hudomiet A1 - Michael D Hurd KW - economic well-being KW - medical expenditures KW - Older ages AB - We study out-of-pocket (OOP) medical expenditure risk of the U.S. population ages 55 and older using data from the Health and Retirement Study and its supplemental survey on household spending. We document trends in individual-level OOP spending from 1998 to 2018, both at the median and 95th percentile, showing a large increase until 2004, followed by rapid declines, so that 2018 OOP was less than 1998 OOP spending. We show how these changes impacted the budget share of OOP as a fraction of total household spending and analyze how households adjust the composition of their spending as OOP expenses vary. Because the distribution of OOP expenses is skewed, households face a non-negligible risk of incurring a large expense. We examined the extent to which OOP medical expenditures contribute to economic hardship among older households, as measured by food insecurity and skipping medications because of cost. We found a weak relationship with respect to food insecurity, suggesting that government programs, like Medicaid, help protect against OOP risk leading to such as an extreme form of hardship. However, we obtained statistically significant and economically meaningful effects with respect to medication insecurity: An increase from the 10th to the 90th percentile in OOP spending would increase the probability of medication insecurity by about 15 percentage points. When asked about their perceived OOP risk, individuals tend to substantially overestimate the chances of large OOP spending, although less so at advanced ages; prior experience with OOP expenses seems to lead to more accurate expectations. PB - University of Michigan Retirement and Disability Research Center CY - Ann Arbor, Michigan UR - https://mrdrc.isr.umich.edu/publications/papers/pdf/wp457.pdf ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Spending trajectories after age 65 variation by initial wealth JF - The Journal of the Economics of Ageing Y1 - 2023 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - Budget shares KW - consumption KW - Financial security of older adults KW - life-cycle model KW - Retirement saving AB - There has been extensive research on the importance of saving for retirement and on tools to support the accumulation of retirement wealth. Much less attention has been paid to the decumulation phase, that is, the spending down of wealth following retirement. Understanding the decumulation phase requires information about the spending patterns of older households and how those patterns evolve with age. This study uses comprehensive longitudinal data on total household spending from a survey that is representative of the older U.S. population to estimate the trajectories of spending after age 65. Based on data spanning the period 2005–2019, real spending declined for both single and coupled households after age 65 at annual rates of about 1.7 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively. Stratification by wealth holdings observed at or closely following age 65 showed sizeable variation in spending levels by wealth quartile, but little variation in rates of change in spending. The fact that spending declines broadly, including among those in the highest wealth quartile, suggests that the decline may not be related to economic position. This view is supported by an analysis of budget shares which show increases with age in the budget share for gifts and donations which suggests that economic position on average does not deteriorate with age, even as spending declines. VL - 26 ER - TY - RPRT T1 - EXPLANATIONS FOR THE DECLINE IN SPENDING AT OLDER AGES Y1 - 2022 A1 - Rohwedder, Susann A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Hudomiet, Péter KW - CAMS KW - consumer spending KW - Retirement AB - We use new data from the 2019 wave of the Consumption and Activities Mail Survey to help interpret the observed decline in spending as individuals age. At one extreme, forward-looking individuals optimally chose the decline; at the other, myopic individuals overspent and were forced to reduce spending because they had run out of wealth. Which interpretation is correct has important implications for the measurement of economic preparation for retirement. According to their own assessments, the fraction of respondents feeling financially constrained is lower at advanced ages, and the fraction satisfied with their economic situation is considerably higher at older ages than at ages near retirement. An important mechanism reconciling the evidence of reduced spending and greater economic satisfaction at older ages may be that individuals’ enjoyment of several activities declines with worsening health, widowing, and increasing age, leading to a lessening desire to spend on them. We find strong support for this hypothesis. Nonetheless, close to 20% of those older than 80 report not being satisfied with their financial situation, pointing to heterogeneity in economic security. JF - Working Papers PB - NBER CY - Cambridge, MA UR - http://www.nber.org/papers/w30460 ER - TY - CHAP T1 - Forecasting Employment of the Older Population T2 - Overtime: America's Aging Workforce and the Future of Working Longer Y1 - 2022 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Rohwedder, Susann ED - Berkman, Lisa F ED - Truesdale, Beth C. KW - Employment KW - Older workers KW - Retirement JF - Overtime: America's Aging Workforce and the Future of Working Longer PB - Oxford University Press ER - TY - RPRT T1 - Spending Trajectories After Age 65 Y1 - 2022 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Rohwedder, Susann KW - health care cost KW - Households KW - Personal finance KW - Retirement KW - retirement benefits KW - socioeconomic status AB - There is a large body of work concerned with the importance of saving for retirement and with developing tools to facilitate and support the accumulation of retirement wealth. Much less attention has been paid to the decumulation phase—that is, the spending down of wealth following retirement. Understanding the decumulation phase requires information about the spending patterns of older households and how those patterns evolve with age. The RAND Corporation has conducted extensive research on spending trajectories of older households. Building on this prior work, the authors provide statistics on household spending and its composition based on longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study. They present estimates of the trajectories of spending after age 65 among single and coupled households stratified by wealth holdings observed at or closely following age 65. According to the results, real spending declined for both single and coupled households. The rates of decline varied only modestly across initial wealth quartiles. The fact that spending declines broadly, even among those in the highest wealth quartile, suggests that the decline is not related to economic position. The authors discuss how the estimated trajectories can help with the prediction of households' spending needs at older ages. JF - Research Reports PB - RAND Corporation CY - Santa Monica, CA ER - TY - RPRT T1 - Spending Trajectories After Age 65: Variation by Initial Wealth Y1 - 2022 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - Retirement KW - Savings KW - Spending AB - There is a large body of work concerned with the importance of saving for retirement and with developing tools to facilitate and support the accumulation of retirement wealth. Much less attention has been paid to the decumulation phase—that is, the spending down of wealth following retirement. Understanding the decumulation phase requires information about the spending patterns of older households and how those patterns evolve with age. The RAND Corporation has conducted extensive research on spending trajectories of older households. Building on this prior work, the authors provide statistics on household spending and its composition based on longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study. They present estimates of the trajectories of spending after age 65 among single and coupled households stratified by wealth holdings observed at or closely following age 65. According to the results, real spending declined for both single and coupled households. The rates of decline varied only modestly across initial wealth quartiles. The fact that spending declines broadly, even among those in the highest wealth quartile, suggests that the decline is not related to economic position. The authors discuss how the estimated trajectories can help with the prediction of households' spending needs at older ages. JF - Research Reports PB - RAND Corporation CY - Santa Monica, CA ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Trends in Health in Midlife and Late Life. JF - Journal of Human Capital Y1 - 2022 A1 - Hudomiet, Péter A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Rohwedder, Susann KW - Diabetes KW - Education KW - Obesity KW - pain KW - Smoking AB -

Gains in life expectancy have recently slowed and mortality inequalities have increased. This paper examines whether trends in health observed at ages 55 to 89 mirror those trends in mortality, which may serve as an early indicator for the future evolution of mortality. We found that many health outcomes have worsened from 1992 to 2016, especially at ages below 70, and that differentials in health between low and high education groups have increased among the more recent cohorts. Overall the findings cast a pessimistic light on the future evolution of mortality rates and mortality inequalities.

VL - 16 IS - 1 ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Trends in inequalities in the prevalence of dementia in the United States. JF - PNAS Y1 - 2022 A1 - Hudomiet, Péter A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Rohwedder, Susann KW - Dementia KW - Educational Status KW - ethnicity KW - Prevalence KW - Retirement AB -

This paper presents estimates of the prevalence of dementia in the United States from 2000 to 2016 by age, sex, race and ethnicity, education, and a measure of lifetime earnings, using data on 21,442 individuals aged 65 y and older and 97,629 person-year observations from a nationally representative survey, the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). The survey includes a range of cognitive tests, and a subsample underwent clinical assessment for dementia. We developed a longitudinal, latent-variable model of cognitive status, which we estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. This model provides more accurate estimates of dementia prevalence in population subgroups than do previously used methods on the HRS. The age-adjusted prevalence of dementia decreased from 12.2% in 2000 (95% CI, 11.7 to 12.7%) to 8.5% in 2016 (7.9 to 9.1%) in the 65+ population, a statistically significant decline of 3.7 percentage points or 30.1%. Females are more likely to live with dementia, but the sex difference has narrowed. In the male subsample, we found a reduction in inequalities across education, earnings, and racial and ethnic groups; among females, those inequalities also declined, but less strongly. We observed a substantial increase in the level of education between 2000 and 2016 in the sample. This compositional change can explain, in a statistical sense, about 40% of the reduction in dementia prevalence among men and 20% among women, whereas compositional changes in the older population by age, race and ethnicity, and cardiovascular risk factors mattered less.

VL - 119 IS - 46 ER - TY - JOUR T1 - The age profile of life satisfaction after age 65 in the U.S. JF - Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization Y1 - 2021 A1 - Péter Hudomiet A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - Differential mortality KW - Differential non-response KW - health KW - Subjective well-being KW - Widowing AB - Although income and wealth are frequently used as indicators of well-being, they are increasingly augmented with subjective measures such as life satisfaction to capture broader dimensions of the well-being of individuals. Based on large surveys of individuals, life satisfaction in cross-section often is found to increase with age beyond retirement into advanced old age. It may seem puzzling that average life satisfaction does not decline at older ages because older individuals are more likely to experience chronic or acute health conditions, or the loss of a spouse. Accordingly, this empirical pattern has been called the “paradox of well-being.” We examine the age profile of life satisfaction of the U.S. population age 65 or older in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), and find that in cross-section it increases between age 65 and 71 and is flat thereafter; but based on the longitudinal dimension of the HRS, life satisfaction significantly declines with age and the rate of decline accelerates with age. We reconcile the cross-section and longitudinal measurements by showing that both differential mortality and differential non-response bias the cross-sectional age profile upward: individuals with higher life satisfaction and in better health tend to live longer, and, among survivors, individuals with higher life satisfaction are more likely to remain in the survey, masking the decline in life satisfaction experienced by individuals as they age. We conclude that the optimistic view about increasing life satisfaction at older ages based on cross-sectional data is not warranted. VL - 189 SN - 0167-2681 ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Forecasting Mortality Inequalities in the U.S. Based on Trends in Midlife Health JF - Journal of Health Economics Y1 - 2021 A1 - Péter Hudomiet A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - differential survival KW - Health Inequality KW - social security wealth KW - socioeconomic status AB - Recent literature has documented a widening gap in mortality between older individuals of high versus low socioeconomic status (SES) in the U.S. This paper investigates whether this trend will continue. We analyze the health status of successive cohorts of 54-60-year-old U.S. individuals born between 1934 and 1959 and use a rich set of health indicators to forecast life expectancies. The detailed health measures come from the longitudinal Health and Retirement Study. We find that many health indicators have worsened recently. For example, rates of obesity, diabetes, and self-reported levels of pain sharply increased between 1992 and 2016. Directly relevant for mortality, recent cohorts report lower subjective survival probabilities. Using Social Security wealth as an SES indicator, we find strong evidence for increasing health inequalities. We predict overall life expectancy to increase further; but the increase will be concentrated among higher SES individuals and mortality inequality will continue to increase. VL - 80 ER - TY - RPRT T1 - The Lifetime Risk of Spousal Nursing Home Use and its Economic Impact on the Community-Dwelling Spouse Y1 - 2021 A1 - Susann Rohwedder A1 - Péter Hudomiet A1 - Michael D Hurd KW - Community-dwelling KW - economic impact KW - lifetime risk KW - nursing home KW - spouse AB - A single person in a nursing home is relatively well-protected financially from nursing home expenses because Medicaid covers these once assets are depleted. Couples, however, are less well protected, because the high cost of nursing homes rapidly depletes household assets, possibly impoverishing the spouse living in the community, despite Medicaid provisions that shield spousal assets up to some threshold. In this paper, we estimate the lifetime risk that one spouse will reside in the community while the other resides in a nursing home, and the distribution of the accumulated number of days spent in a nursing home and costs. We use data from the longitudinal Health and Retirement Study and follow individuals and their spouses from age 70 to death. We also examine how spousal nursing home use affects families’ financial outcomes and to what extent Social Security income protects the community-residing spouse from the adverse effects of spousal nursing home use. We find that a 70- to 74-year-old married person who lives in the community faces a 34.3% chance that his or her spouse would move to a nursing home before death. When they do, spouses spend about nine months, on average, in nursing homes, and the average out-of-pocket cost is about $19,800 (2019 dollars). We find that spousal nursing home use significantly decreases households’ assets and increases the risk of further impoverishment. While Social Security income has an overall positive impact on families’ financial outcomes, it does not mitigate the financial effects of spousal nursing home use. JF - MRDRC Working Paper PB - Michigan Retirement and Disability Research Center, University of Michigan CY - Ann Arbor, MI UR - https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/171803/wp433.pdf?sequence=1 ER - TY - BOOK T1 - The Age Profile of Life-Satisfaction After Age 65 in the U.S. T2 - RAND Working Paper Y1 - 2020 A1 - Péter Hudomiet A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - age profile KW - Life Satisfaction AB - Although income and wealth are frequently used as indicators of well-being, they are increasingly augmented with subjective measures such as life satisfaction to capture broader dimensions of individuals' well-being. Based on data from large surveys of individuals, life satisfaction in cross-section increases with age beyond retirement into advanced old age. It may seem puzzling that average life satisfaction would be higher at older ages because older individuals are more likely to experience chronic or acute health conditions, or the loss of a spouse. Accordingly, this empirical pattern has been called the "paradox of well-being." We examine the age profile of life satisfaction of the U.S. population age 65 and older in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and also find increasing life satisfaction at older ages in cross-section. But based on the longitudinal dimension of the HRS life satisfaction significantly declines with age and the rate of decline accelerates with age. Widowing and health shocks play important roles in this decline. We reconcile the cross-section and longitudinal measurements by showing that both differential mortality and differential non-response bias the cross-sectional age profile upward: individuals with higher life satisfaction and in better health tend to live longer and to remain in the survey, causing average values to increase. We conclude that the optimistic view about increasing life satisfaction at older ages based on cross-sectional data is not warranted. JF - RAND Working Paper PB - RAND Corporation CY - Santa Monica, CA VL - WR-A1009-1 ER - TY - RPRT T1 - The Impact of Growing Health and Mortality Inequalities on Lifetime Social Security Payouts Y1 - 2020 A1 - Péter Hudomiet A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - health KW - mortality inequalities KW - Social Security AB - The prevalence of obesity, diabetes, and other health problems has increased in recent decades in the United States, and there is a growing gap between the health and longevity of individuals with high socioeconomic status (SES) and low SES. These trends likely have implications for Social Security’s financial position in the coming decades. Because high-SES individuals tend to receive higher annual benefits and live longer, increases in health and mortality inequalities may result in increases in aggregate Social Security payouts. This paper uses data from the Health and Retirement Study, and a microsimulation model of health, mortality, and Social Security benefits, to forecast lifetime Social Security benefits of the 1934 to 1959 birth cohorts in the U.S. We compare alternative assumptions about the future course of mortality. We find that accounting for health and mortality inequalities is important. In a baseline model that ignores trends in mortality inequalities, we estimate that lifetime Social Security benefits would grow by 26% in real terms between the 1934 and 1959 birth cohorts due to increasing benefit levels and improvements in average mortality. When we account for mortality inequalities, we find an increase of 28% to 38% in average lifetime benefits, depending on the assumptions of the model. We also forecast lifetime benefits using the alternative assumption that improvements in population mortality will slow for younger birth cohorts. JF - Michigan Retirement and Disability Research Center Working Paper PB - Michigan Retirement and Disability Research Center, University of Michigan CY - Ann Arbor, MI UR - https://mrdrc.isr.umich.edu/publications/papers/pdf/wp412.pdf ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Reducing cross-wave variability in survey measures of household wealth JF - Journal of Economic and Social Measurement Y1 - 2020 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Erik Meijer A1 - Moldoff, Michael A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - household income KW - Panel data KW - social structure KW - survey design KW - United States AB - Survey measures of household wealth often incorporate measurement error. The resulting excess variability in the first difference in wealth makes meaningful statistical inference difficult on changes in household-level wealth. We study the effects of two methods intended to reduce this problem: Asset verification confronts respondents with large discrepancies between wealth reports from the current wave and from the previous wave. Cross-wave imputation uses adjacent wave information in the imputation procedures for missing data. In the U.S. Health and Retirement Study, the corrections from asset verification substantially reduced wave-To-wave changes in wealth. The cross-wave imputations also reduced variation, but to a lesser extent. © 2019-IOS Press and the authors. All rights reserved. VL - 44 N1 - cited By 0 ER - TY - RPRT T1 - How Reliant are Older Americans on State and Local Government Pensions? Y1 - 2019 A1 - Philip Armour A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder AB - State and local government pension plans cover about 19.5 million participants, and many participants are heavily reliant on these pensions for retirement income. Most of these plans, however, are underfunded. Based on data from the Health and Retirement Study, we examined the lifetime work histories of those observed at ages 67 to 72 in 2004, 2008, or 2014. Seventy-seven percent of single persons and 61 percent of couple households had never worked for state or local (S&L) government. Among those single and couple households who did work for S&L government, we found that they have on average more years of education and more economic resources. Among currently retired and near-retirement households, we compared economic preparation for retirement according to their lifetime employment in the S&L sector, and we examined how economic preparation would be affected if pension benefits were cut. Based on stochastic simulations, which account for uncertainty about length of life and out-of-pocket medical expenditures, we found that economic preparation for retirement among those with S&L government work histories would only be modestly reduced if their pension income were cut. Under a 50 percent cut to all pension income of households with any S&L sector work, only an additional three to four percent of these households would no longer be prepared for retirement. The change is modest because households with S&L employment have better preparation than other households; some of the cuts are paid for by reduced taxes; and the affected households will bequeath less. JF - MRDRC Working Paper UR - https://mrdrc.isr.umich.edu/pubs/how-reliant-are-older-americans-on-state-and-local-government-pensions/ ER - TY - JOUR T1 - The relationship between lifetime out-of-pocket medical expenditures, dementia, and socioeconomic status in the U.S JF - The Journal of the Economics of Ageing Y1 - 2019 A1 - Péter Hudomiet A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - Cognitive Ability KW - Dementia KW - Medical Expenses KW - Out-of-pocket payments KW - Socioeconomic factors AB - Dementia is one of the most expensive medical conditions. The costs are borne by families, by private insurance and by society via public programs such as Medicaid in the U.S.. There is extensive research on the relationship between dementia and annual medical spending. This paper, instead, estimates cumulative lifetime medical expenditures that can be attributed to the onset of dementia using a nationally representative longitudinal survey from the U.S., the Health and Retirement Study. The lifetime expenditures are estimated by summing any out-of-pocket medical spending reported in the panel from age 65 to death. Censored cases are imputed using a non-parametric matching algorithm called splicing. For example, survivors to the most recent wave are matched to similar individuals from older cohorts who are observed at the relevant ages all the way through death. We find that those who live with dementia for at least half a year pay, on average, $38,540 more out of pocket from age 65 to death when controlling for length of life, demographics, lifetime earnings and comorbidities. The costs of dementia are almost exclusively due to spending on nursing homes. Spending on drugs, doctor visits or hospitals, is not significantly related to dementia. The lifetime costs of dementia are significantly larger for white and rich individuals, perhaps because they use higher quality nursing homes and because they have more financial resources to spend down before becoming eligible for Medicaid support. VL - 14 UR - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212828X18300690 JO - The Journal of the Economics of Ageing ER - TY - RPRT T1 - Trends in Health and Mortality Inequalities in the United States Y1 - 2019 A1 - Péter Hudomiet A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - health KW - Inequality KW - Mortality AB - Recent literature has documented a widening gap in mortality in the United States between individuals with high socioeconomic status (SES) and low SES. An important question is whether this trend will continue. In this paper we document trends and inequalities in the health status at ages 54 to 60 of individuals born between 1934 and 1959. We do so by using detailed subjective and objective measures of health in the Health and Retirement Study to examine contributors to mortality inequality and to forecast life expectancy. We found that the health of individuals 54 to 60 years old has generally declined in recent years. In particular, we found large increases in obesity rates, notable increases in diabetes and reported levels of pain, and lower self-reported health and subjective survival probabilities. We also found strong evidence for increasing health inequalities, as the health of individuals in these cohorts with high SES remained largely stable while that for individuals with low SES declined. When we forecast life expectancies using these predictor variables, as well as gender- and SES-specific time trends, we predict overall life expectancy to increase further. However, the increase is concentrated among high SES individuals, suggesting growing mortality inequality. Results are similar among men and women. JF - Forecasting Survival by Socioeconomic Status and Implications for Social Security Benefits PB - Michigan Retirement Research Center CY - Ann Arbor, MI UR - https://mrdrc.isr.umich.edu/pubs/trends-in-health-and-mortality-inequalities-in-the-united-states/ ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Dementia Prevalence in the United States in 2000 and 2012: Estimates Based on a Nationally Representative Study. JF - Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Soc Sciences Y1 - 2018 A1 - Péter Hudomiet A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - Cognitive Ability KW - Dementia AB -

Objectives: Age- and sex-specific rates of dementia are estimated in the U.S. population aged 65 or older in 2000 and 2012 using a large nationally representative dataset, the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), and accounting for mortality selection and specificities of the interview protocol.

Method: A latent cognitive ability model is estimated by maximum simulated likelihood. Prevalence of dementia is identified using HRS cognition measures and the Aging, Demographics and Memory Study (ADAMS), a subset of the HRS (n = 856) with clinical assessment for dementia. Different cognitive measures are collected in self and proxy interviews. From 2006 onward, the HRS collected fewer interviews by proxy. Selection into proxy interviews is modeled as well as survival into the ADAMS sample from the previous HRS interview.

Results: The prevalence of dementia decreased from 12.0% (SE = 0.48%) in 2000 to 10.5% (SE = 0.49%) in 2012 in the 65+ population, a statistically significant decline of 12.6% (p < .01). The percentage change in prevalence was larger among males (16.6% vs 9.5%), and younger individuals.

Discussion: The prevalence of dementia among those 65 or older decreased between 2000 and 2012, although less rapidly than reported in other studies. The difference is primarily due to our modeling selection into proxy interviews.

VL - 73 IS - suppl_1 U1 - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29669104?dopt=Abstract ER - TY - JOUR T1 - The Potential Effects of Obesity on Social Security Claiming Behavior and Retirement Benefits. JF - J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci Y1 - 2018 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - James P Smith A1 - Julie M Zissimopoulos KW - Aged KW - Female KW - Humans KW - Life Expectancy KW - Male KW - Obesity KW - Pensions KW - Poverty KW - Social Class KW - Social Security KW - United States AB -

OBJECTIVES: Obesity prevalence among Americans has increased for nearly three decades. We explore the relationship between the rise in obesity and Social Security retirement benefit claiming, a decision impacting nearly all aging Americans. Specifically, we investigate whether obesity can affect individuals' decision to claim benefits early, a choice that has important implications for financial security in retirement, particularly for those with lower socioeconomic status (SES).

METHOD: We use a microsimulation model called MINT6 (Modeling Income in the Near Term, version 6) to demonstrate the potential effects of obesity on subjective life expectancy and claiming behavior. We impute obesity status using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), which describes the distribution of obesity prevalence within the United States by gender, poverty status, and race/ethnicity.

RESULTS: We find that the rise in obesity and the consequent incidence of obesity-related diseases may lead some individuals to make claiming decisions that lead to lower monthly and lifetime Social Security retirement benefits. Further, we find that the potential economic impact of this decision is larger for those with lower SES.

DISCUSSION: We present a behavioral perspective by addressing the potential effects that obesity can have on individuals' retirement decisions and their resulting Social Security retirement benefits.

PB - 19 VL - 73 IS - 4 U1 - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27044665?dopt=Abstract U4 - Social Security benefit claiming/Subjective Probabilities of Survival ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Distribution of lifetime nursing home use and of out‐of‐pocket spending JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Y1 - 2017 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Pierre-Carl Michaud A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - Consumption and Savings KW - Medical Expenses KW - Nursing homes KW - Spending VL - 114 UR - http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1700618114https://syndication.highwire.org/content/doi/10.1073/pnas.1700618114http://www.pnas.org/syndication/doi/10.1073/pnas.1700618114 IS - 37 JO - Proc Natl Acad Sci USA ER - TY - RPRT T1 - The Effect of Physical and Cognitive Decline at Older Ages on Work and Retirement: Evidence from Occupational Job Demands and Job Mismatch Y1 - 2017 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder A1 - Robert J. Willis A1 - Péter Hudomiet KW - Cognitive Ability KW - Motor processes KW - Physical Ability KW - Work AB - As workers age, their physical and cognitive abilities tend to decline. This could lead to a mismatch between workers’ resources and the demands of their jobs, restricting future work. We use longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) linked to detailed occupational characteristics from the O*NET project to investigate how mismatches between job demands and workers’ resources in two physical and two cognitive domains affect retirement outcomes. We estimate how changes in physical and cognitive resources as well as their interactions with occupational job-demands affect changes in 1) subjective reports of work-limiting health problems; 2) mental health; and 3) subjective probabilities of working past age 65. We also estimate hazard models for transitions from full-time work to retirement. We found that declines in physical and cognitive resources are strong predictors of all outcomes: Fewer resources lead to greater reporting of work-limiting health problems; decline in mental health; smaller subjective probabilities of working full-time past age 65; and more transitions from work to retirement. The interaction of resources with job demands, however, is only statistically significant for workers with large-muscle limitations who are more likely to report changes in outcomes when they work in occupations that rely heavily on physical strength. In contrast, the effects of declines in fine motor skills and cognition do not show statistically significant differences by occupational job demands. It appears cognitive and fine motor skills, at least as measured in the HRS, are universally important determinants of working, not specific to certain occupations. JF - Working Papers PB - Michigan Retirement Research Center CY - Ann Arbor, MI UR - http://mrrc.isr.umich.edu/wp372/ ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Individual survival curves comparing subjective and observed mortality risks. JF - Health Economics Y1 - 2017 A1 - Luc Bissonnette A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Pierre-Carl Michaud KW - Mortality KW - NDI KW - Survival curves AB - We compare individual survival curves constructed from objective (actual mortality) and elicited subjective information (probability of survival to a given target age). We develop a methodology to estimate jointly subjective and objective individual survival curves accounting for rounding on subjective reports of perceived survival. We make use of the long follow-up period in the Health and Retirement Study and the high quality of mortality data to estimate individual survival curves that feature both observed and unobserved heterogeneity. This allows us to compare objective and subjective estimates of remaining life expectancy for various groups and compare welfare effects of objective and subjective mortality risk using the life cycle model of consumption. We find that subjective and objective hazards are not the same. The median welfare loss from misperceptions of mortality risk when annuities are not available is 7% of current wealth at age 65 whereas more than 25% of respondents have losses larger than 60% of wealth. When annuities are available and exogenously given, the welfare loss is substantially lower. VL - 26 IS - 12 U1 - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28508558?dopt=Abstract ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Personality and Employment Transitions at Older Ages: Direct and Indirect Effects through Non-Monetary Job Characteristics JF - Labour Y1 - 2017 A1 - Marco Angrisani A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Erik Meijer A1 - Andrew M Parker A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - Employment and Labor Force KW - Jobs KW - Older Adults KW - Personality AB - We study whether individuals with different personality traits systematically exhibit different retirement trajectories. We find weak direct associations between personality and employment transitions. On the other hand, personality does contribute indirectly to these transitions by moderating the effects of non-monetary job characteristics. Specifically, workers with different traits are observed to follow different retirement paths when faced with similar physical demands, computer skills requirements, job flexibility, and age discrimination in the workplace. Contrary with other economic domains, conscientiousness does not have the strongest association with retirement; the other components of the Big Five personality traits show more salient patterns. VL - 31 UR - http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/labr.12090http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1111/labr.12090/fullpdfhttps://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Flabr.12090 IS - 2 JO - Labour ER - TY - JOUR T1 - The effect of job loss on health: Evidence from biomarkers JF - Labour Economics Y1 - 2016 A1 - Pierre-Carl Michaud A1 - Eileen M. Crimmins A1 - Michael D Hurd KW - Biomarkers KW - Health Shocks KW - Job loss KW - Older Adults KW - Retirement Planning and Satisfaction AB - We estimate the effect of job loss on objective measures of physiological dysregulation using biomarker measures collected by the Health and Retirement Study in 2006 and 2008 and longitudinal self-reports of work status. We distinguish between group or individual layoffs, and business closures. Workers who are laid off from their job have lower health as measured by biomarker, whereas workers laid off in the context of a business closure do not. Estimates matching respondents wave-by-wave on self-reported health conditions and subjective job loss expectations prior to job loss, suggest strong effects of layoffs on biomarkers, in particular for glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c). A layoff could increase annual mortality rates by 10.3%, consistent with other evidence of the effect of group layoffs on mortality. VL - 41 UR - http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0927537116300288http://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S0927537116300288?httpAccept=text/xmlhttp://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S0927537116300288?httpAccept=text/plain JO - Labour Economics ER - TY - RPRT T1 - Improved Wealth Measures in the Health and Retirement Study: Asset Reconciliation and Cross-Wave Imputation Y1 - 2016 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Erik Meijer A1 - Moldoff, Michael A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - Demographics KW - Methodology AB - In this report, we present improved wealth measures for the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), which aim to reduce the effect of observation error on wealth levels and changes in wealth. The new wealth measures take account of the asset verification section in the HRS and use cross-wave information, most notably the value of the same asset in adjacent waves, in the imputation models, so imputed values better preserve serial correlation in the asset values. We document how we dealt with several methodological challenges in the implementation of these improvements. The corrections from the asset verification data reduce the standard deviations of wave-to-wave changes by substantial amounts (up to 57 percent for total wealth). The most important effect of the cross-wave imputations is a considerable reduction of the number of spikes and trenches (large changes in value followed by large changes back). U4 - Methodology/Retirement and Retirement Benefits/Socioeconomic Status ER - TY - ICOMM T1 - Living longer, working longer Y1 - 2016 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - Employment and Labor Force KW - Social Security JF - Commentary (The RAND Blog) PB - The RAND Corporation CY - Santa Monica, CA UR - https://www.rand.org/blog/2016/08/living-longer-working-longer.html ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Disease incidence and mortality among older Americans and Europeans. JF - Demography Y1 - 2015 A1 - Sole-Auro, Aida A1 - Pierre-Carl Michaud A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Eileen M. Crimmins KW - Age Distribution KW - Aged KW - Chronic disease KW - Europe KW - Health Behavior KW - Humans KW - Incidence KW - Middle Aged KW - Neoplasms KW - Prevalence KW - Risk Factors KW - Sex Distribution KW - Socioeconomic factors KW - United States AB -

Recent research has shown a widening gap in life expectancy at age 50 between the United States and Europe as well as large differences in the prevalence of diseases at older ages. Little is known about the processes determining international differences in the prevalence of chronic diseases. Higher prevalence of disease could result from either higher incidence or longer disease-specific survival. This article uses comparable longitudinal data from 2004 and 2006 for populations aged 50 to 79 from the United States and from a selected group of European countries to examine age-specific differences in prevalence and incidence of heart disease, stroke, lung disease, diabetes, hypertension, and cancer as well as mortality associated with each disease. Not surprisingly, we find that Americans have higher disease prevalence. For heart disease, diabetes, and cancer, incidence is lower in Europe when we control for sociodemographic and health behavior differences in risk, and these differences explain much of the prevalence gap at older ages. On the other hand, incidence is higher in Europe for lung disease and not different between Europe and the United States for hypertension and stroke. Our findings do not suggest a survival advantage conditional on disease in Europe compared with the United States. Therefore, the origin of the higher disease prevalence at older ages in the United States is to be found in higher prevalence earlier in the life course and, for some conditions, higher incidence between ages 50 and 79.

VL - 52 IS - 2 U1 - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25715676?dopt=Abstract ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Future Monetary Costs of Dementia in the United States under Alternative Dementia Prevalence Scenarios. JF - Journal of Population Ageing Y1 - 2015 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Martorell, Paco A1 - Kenneth M. Langa KW - Dementia KW - Forecasting KW - Health Conditions and Status KW - Older Adults AB -

Population aging will likely lead to increases is health care spending and the ability of governments to support entitlement programs such as Medicare and Medicaid. Dementia is a chronic condition that is especially pertinent because of its strong association with old age and because care for dementia is labor intensive and expensive. Indeed, prior research has found that if current dementia prevalence rates persist population aging will generate very large increases in health care spending for dementia. In this study we considered two alternative assumptions or scenarios about future prevalence. The first adjusts the prevalence projections using recent research that suggests dementia prevalence may be declining. The second uses growth hypertension, obesity and diabetes, and the relationship between dementia and these conditions to adjust future prevalence rates. We find under the first scenario that if the rates of decline in age-specific dementia rates persist, future costs will be much less than previous estimates, about 40% lower. Under the second scenario, the growth in those conditions makes only small differences in costs.

VL - 8 IS - 1-2 ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Subjective mortality risk and bequests JF - Journal of Econometrics Y1 - 2015 A1 - Gan, Li A1 - Gong, Guan A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Daniel McFadden KW - Bequests KW - Mortality KW - Older Adults AB - This paper investigates the ability of subjective expectations about life expectancy to predict wealth holding patterns in later life. Based on panel data from the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old, we estimate a structural life-cycle model with bequests. Each individual’s subjective survival rates in the future are estimated with data on his belief of survival probabilities to a target age. This estimation is build upon a Bayesian updating method developed in Gan et al. (2005). We find that life-cycle model using subjective survival rates performs better than using life-table survival rates in predicting wealth holdings. This result suggests that subjective survival expectations play an important role in deciding consumption and savings. In addition, the estimation results show that most bequests are involuntary or accidental. VL - 188 IS - 2 JO - Journal of Econometrics ER - TY - JOUR T1 - US Prevalence And Predictors Of Informal Caregiving For Dementia. JF - Health Affairs Y1 - 2015 A1 - Esther M Friedman A1 - Regina A Shih A1 - Kenneth M. Langa A1 - Michael D Hurd KW - Caregiving KW - Dementia KW - Demographics KW - Long-term Care KW - Older Adults AB - In 2010, 5.5 million US adults ages seventy and older received informal care, including 3.6 million with cognitive impairment or probable dementia. Adults with probable dementia received 171 hours of monthly informal care, versus 89 and 66 hours for cognitively impaired without dementia and cognitively normal adults, respectively. VL - 34 IS - 10 ER - TY - RPRT T1 - The Effect of Job Loss on Health: Evidence from Biomarkers Y1 - 2014 A1 - Pierre-Carl Michaud A1 - Eileen M. Crimmins A1 - Michael D Hurd KW - Demographics KW - Employment and Labor Force KW - Health Conditions and Status KW - Methodology AB - The effect of job loss on health may play an important role in the development of the SES-health gradient. In this paper, we estimate the effect of job loss on objective measures of physiological dysregulation using longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study and biomarker measures collected in 2006 and 2008. We use a variety of econometric methods to account for selection and reverse causality.Distinguishing between layoffs and business closures, we find no evidence that business closures lead to worse health outcomes. We also find no evidence that biomarker health measures predict subsequent job loss because of business closures. We do find evidence that layoffs lead to diminished health. Although this finding appears to be robust to confounders, we find that reverse causality tends to bias downward our estimates. Matching estimates, which account for self-reported health conditions prior to the layoff and subjective job loss expectations, suggest even stronger estimates of the effect of layoffs on health as measured from biomarkers, in particular for glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and C-reactive protein (CRP). Overall, we estimate that a layoff could increase annual mortality rates by 9.4 , which is consistent with other evidence of the effect of mass layoffs on mortality. PB - Bonn, Germany, Institute for the Study of Labor U4 - job loss/health/SES-health gradient/biomarkers/Socioeconomic Status/Self assessed health/Layoffs/biomarkers ER - TY - CHAP T1 - The Lifetime Risk of Nursing Home Use T2 - Discoveries in the Economics of Aging Y1 - 2014 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Pierre-Carl Michaud A1 - Susann Rohwedder ED - David A Wise KW - Health Conditions and Status KW - Healthcare AB - This paper estimates the lifetime risk and distribution of stays in nursing homes using 10 waves of data from the Health and Retirement Study covering the population over the age of 50. Using both non-parametric and parametric approaches which account for censoring, we estimate that a 50 year old has a 53 to 59 chance of ever entering a nursing home before he dies and that, conditional on any stay, the average duration is just over a year. We show that stays at the end of life which are typically not captured in core interviews are very important for assessing lifetime exposure. The HRS performs exit interviews with proxies for those who died. Excluding exit interviews yields lifetime risk under 40 . Being female, white and a non-smoker are associated with higher lifetime risk due to lower (competing) mortality risk and higher nursing home risk at older ages. JF - Discoveries in the Economics of Aging PB - University of Chicago Press CY - Chicago U4 - nursing home rist/nursing homes/mortality JO - The Lifetime Risk of Nursing Home Use ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Dementia and out-of-pocket spending on health care services. JF - Alzheimers Dement Y1 - 2013 A1 - Delavande, Adeline A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Martorell, Paco A1 - Kenneth M. Langa KW - Aged KW - Dementia KW - Female KW - Financing, Personal KW - Health Expenditures KW - Humans KW - Male AB -

BACKGROUND: High levels of out-of-pocket (OOP) spending for health care may lead patients to forego needed services and medications as well as hamper their ability to pay for other essential goods. Because it leads to disability and the loss of independence, dementia may put patients and their families at risk for high OOP spending, especially for long-term care services.

METHODS: We used data from the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study, a nationally representative subsample (n = 743) of the Health and Retirement Study, to determine whether individuals with dementia had higher self-reported OOP spending compared with those with cognitive impairment without dementia and those with normal cognitive function. We also examined the relationship between dementia and utilization of dental care and prescription medications-two types of health care that are frequently paid for OOP. Multivariate and logistic regression models were used to adjust for the influence of potential confounders.

RESULTS: After controlling for demographics and comorbidities, those with dementia had more than three times the yearly OOP spending compared with those with normal cognition ($8216 for those with dementia vs. $2570 for those with normal cognition, P < .01). Higher OOP spending for those with dementia was mainly driven by greater expenditures on nursing home care (P < .01). Dementia was not associated with the likelihood of visiting the dentist (P = .76) or foregoing prescription medications owing to cost (P = .34).

CONCLUSIONS: Dementia is associated with high levels of OOP spending but not with the use of dental care or foregoing prescription medications, suggesting that excess OOP spending among those with dementia does not "crowd out" spending on these other health care services.

PB - 9 VL - 9 IS - 1 N1 - Times Cited: 0 U1 - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23154049?dopt=Abstract U3 - 23154049 U4 - Out of pocket costs/health Care/Long Term Care/Dementia/dental Care/COMORBIDITY/health care services ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Heterogeneity in spending change at retirement. JF - Journal of the Economics of Ageing Y1 - 2013 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - Older Adults KW - Retirement Planning and Satisfaction AB -

The simple one-good model of life-cycle consumption requires that consumption be continuous over retirement; yet prior research based on partial measures of consumption or on synthetic panels indicates that spending drops at retirement, a result that has been called the retirement-consumption puzzle. Using panel data on total spending, nondurable spending and food spending, we find that spending declines at small rates at retirement, rates that could be explained by mechanisms such as the cessation of work-related expenses, unexpected retirement due to a health shock or by the substitution of time for spending. We find substantial heterogeneity in spending change at retirement: in the upper half of the wealth distribution spending increased. In the low-wealth population where spending did decline at higher rates, the main explanation for the decline appears to be early retirement due to poor health, possibly augmented by a short planning horizon by a minority of the population.

VL - 1-2 ER - TY - RPRT T1 - Labor Force Transitions at Older Ages: The Roles of Work Environment and Personality Y1 - 2013 A1 - Marco Angrisani A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Erik Meijer A1 - Andrew M Parker A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - Employment and Labor Force KW - Health Conditions and Status KW - Other KW - Retirement Planning and Satisfaction AB - Besides compensation and financial incentives, several other work-related factors may affect individual retirement decisions. Specifically, job characteristics such as autonomy, skill variety, task significance and difficulty, stress and physical demands, peer pressure and relations with co-workers, play a crucial role in determining psychological commitment to work at older ages. While financial preparedness for retirement and health shocks are often cited as main predictors of the choice to exit the labor force, there exists relatively little research documenting the extent to which the work environment itself and its interaction with economic variables influence retirement decisions. We document that job characteristics are associated with labor force transitions at older ages, in particular transitions to retirement and part-time employment. Additionally, we show that while personality traits do not directly drive labor force transitions, the effect of job characteristics on labor supply outcomes varies with the intensity of personality traits. We also document that job characteristics themselves are strongly related to personality traits. This suggests that, depending on their personality, individuals may select into specific jobs, whose characteristics ultimately shape their retirement paths. PB - Ann Arbor, The University of Michigan UR - http://www.mrrc.isr.umich.edu/publications/papers/pdf/wp295.pdf U4 - retirement planning/part-Time Work/labor Force Participation/transitions/personality traits ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Monetary costs of dementia in the United States. JF - N Engl J Med Y1 - 2013 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Martorell, Paco A1 - Delavande, Adeline A1 - Kathleen J Mullen A1 - Kenneth M. Langa KW - Aged KW - Aged, 80 and over KW - Cost of Illness KW - Dementia KW - Female KW - Health Care Costs KW - Home Care Services KW - Home Nursing KW - Humans KW - Longitudinal Studies KW - Male KW - Medicare KW - Middle Aged KW - Nursing homes KW - United States AB -

BACKGROUND: Dementia affects a large and growing number of older adults in the United States. The monetary costs attributable to dementia are likely to be similarly large and to continue to increase.

METHODS: In a subsample (856 persons) of the population in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a nationally representative longitudinal study of older adults, the diagnosis of dementia was determined with the use of a detailed in-home cognitive assessment that was 3 to 4 hours in duration and a review by an expert panel. We then imputed cognitive status to the full HRS sample (10,903 persons, 31,936 person-years) on the basis of measures of cognitive and functional status available for all HRS respondents, thereby identifying persons in the larger sample with a high probability of dementia. The market costs associated with care for persons with dementia were determined on the basis of self-reported out-of-pocket spending and the utilization of nursing home care; Medicare claims data were used to identify costs paid by Medicare. Hours of informal (unpaid) care were valued either as the cost of equivalent formal (paid) care or as the estimated wages forgone by informal caregivers.

RESULTS: The estimated prevalence of dementia among persons older than 70 years of age in the United States in 2010 was 14.7%. The yearly monetary cost per person that was attributable to dementia was either $56,290 (95% confidence interval [CI], $42,746 to $69,834) or $41,689 (95% CI, $31,017 to $52,362), depending on the method used to value informal care. These individual costs suggest that the total monetary cost of dementia in 2010 was between $157 billion and $215 billion. Medicare paid approximately $11 billion of this cost.

CONCLUSIONS: Dementia represents a substantial financial burden on society, one that is similar to the financial burden of heart disease and cancer. (Funded by the National Institute on Aging.).

PB - 386 VL - 368 UR - http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1204629 IS - 14 U1 - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23550670?dopt=Abstract U3 - 23550670 U4 - ADAMS/Dementia/Cognitive Impairment/cognitive assessment/PREVALENCE/Medicare/Out of pocket costs/nursing homes/Informal care/public policy ER - TY - JOUR T1 - The Displacement Effect of Public Pensions on the Accumulation of Financial Assets. JF - Fiscal Studies Y1 - 2012 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Pierre-Carl Michaud A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - Finances KW - Older Adults KW - Pensions KW - Retirement Planning and Satisfaction AB -

The generosity of public pensions may depress private savings and provide incentives to retire early. While there is plenty of evidence supporting the latter effect, there remains considerable controversy whether public pensions crowd out private savings. This paper uses international micro-datasets collected over recent years to investigate whether public pensions displace private savings. The identification strategy relies not only on cross-country differences in generosity but also on differences in the progressivity or non-linearity of pension formulas across countries. We estimate that an extra dollar of pension wealth depresses accumulated financial assets around the time of retirement by 22 cents. An extra ten thousand dollars in public pension wealth reduces the average retirement age by roughly one month which implies an elasticity of retirement years with respect to pension wealth of -0.15.

VL - 33 IS - 1 ER - TY - RPRT T1 - Investment Decisions in Retirement: The Role of Subjective Expectations Y1 - 2012 A1 - Marco Angrisani A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Erik Meijer KW - Net Worth and Assets KW - Pensions AB - The rapid transition from defined benefit (DB) pension plans to defined contribution (DC) plans has a potential benefit of offering pension holders greater control over how their pension accumulations are invested. If pension holders are willing to take some risk, investments in the stock market could increase their economic preparation for retirement, and, indeed, economic theory as well as the typical advice of financial advisors calls for stock market investments. Yet, the rate of stock holding is much below what theory suggests it should be, undoing any benefit associated with the greater control coming from DC plans. The leading explanations for this under-investing include excessive risk aversion, costs of entry, and misperceptions about possible returns in the stock market. We show that excessive risk aversion is not able to account for the low fraction of stock holding. However, a model with heterogeneous subjective expectations about stock market returns is able to account for low stock market participation, and tracks the share of risky assets conditional on participation reasonably well. Based on the model with subjective expectations, we estimate a welfare loss of up to 12 compared to investment under rational expectations, if actual returns follow the same distribution as in the past 50 years. The policy implication is that there is considerable scope for welfare improvement as a result of consumer education regarding stock market returns. However, the welfare loss is much smaller if individuals are not very risk averse or if actual returns follow the same distribution as in the past 10 years PB - Ann Arbor, The University of Michigan UR - http://www.mrrc.isr.umich.edu/publications/publications_download.cfm?pid=865 U4 - pension Plans/defined benefit plans/defined contribution pension plans/investment Decisions/investment Decisions/stock market ER - TY - RPRT T1 - Personality Traits and Economic Preparation for Retirement Y1 - 2012 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Angela Lee Duckworth A1 - Susann Rohwedder A1 - David R Weir KW - Consumption and Savings KW - Health Conditions and Status KW - Net Worth and Assets KW - Retirement Planning and Satisfaction AB - This paper assesses the effects of personality traits on economic preparation for retirement, wealth accumulation, and consumption, among persons 66 to 69 years of age. Among the five chief personality traits of neuroticism, extroversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, and openness, we focus most on conscientiousness. We find levels of adequate economic preparation for retirement ranging from 29 percent to 90 percent and that conscientiousness positively affects the proportion of persons adequately prepared for retirement, while neuroticism negatively affects it. Both consumption and wealth increase with conscientiousness but wealth increases faster, indicating that more conscientious persons save more out of retirement resources. JF - MRDRC Working Paper PB - Michigan Retirement and Disability Research Center, University of Michigan CY - Ann Arbor, MI UR - https://ideas.repec.org/p/mrr/papers/wp279.html U4 - personality traits/Conscientiousness/Conscientiousness/retirement planning/wealth Accumulation/consumption/wealth ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Conscientiousness and longevity: an examination of possible mediators. JF - Health Psychol Y1 - 2011 A1 - Patrick L Hill A1 - Nicholas A. Turiano A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Daniel K. Mroczek A1 - Brent W Roberts KW - Adult KW - Aged KW - Chronic disease KW - Cognition KW - Educational Status KW - Female KW - Health Behavior KW - Health Status KW - Humans KW - Longevity KW - Longitudinal Studies KW - Male KW - Middle Aged KW - Personality KW - Proportional Hazards Models KW - Psychological Tests AB -

OBJECTIVE: Conscientious individuals tend to experience a number of health benefits, not the least of which being greater longevity. However, it remains an open question as to why this link with longevity occurs. The current study tested two possible mediators (physical health and cognitive functioning) of the link between conscientiousness and longevity.

METHOD: We tested these mediators using a 10-year longitudinal sample (N = 512), a subset of the long-running Health and Retirement Study of aging adults. Measures included an adjective-rating measure of conscientiousness, self-reported health conditions, and three measures of cognitive functioning (word recall, delayed recall, and vocabulary) included in the 1996 wave of the HRS study.

RESULTS: Our results found that conscientiousness significantly predicted greater longevity, even in a model including the two proposed mediator variables, gender, age, and years of education. Moreover, cognitive functioning appears to partially mediate this relationship.

CONCLUSIONS: This study replicates previous research showing that conscientious individuals tend to lead longer lives, and provides further insight into why this effect occurs. In addition, it underscores the importance of measurement considerations.

PB - 30 VL - 30 IS - 5 N1 - Hill, Patrick L Turiano, Nicholas A Hurd, Michael D Mroczek, Daniel K Roberts, Brent W R01 AG021178-09/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States United States Health psychology : official journal of the Division of Health Psychology, American Psychological Association Health Psychol. 2011 Sep;30(5):536-41. U1 - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21604882?dopt=Abstract U2 - PMC3587967 U4 - Adult/Chronic Disease/mortality/psychology/Chronic Disease/mortality/psychology/Cognition/Educational Status/Female/Health Behavior/Health Status/Humans/Longevity/Longitudinal Studies/Middle Aged/Personality/Personality/Proportional Hazards Models/Psychological Tests ER - TY - RPRT T1 - Consumption and Differential Mortality Y1 - 2011 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - Consumption and Savings KW - Demographics KW - Health Conditions and Status KW - Methodology AB - It is well-established that differential mortality according to wealth or income introduces bias into age profiles of these variables when estimated on cross-sectional or synthetic cohort data. However, little is known about whether this association is also found with consumption, and if so, how strong this association is. In this paper we use panel data on total household spending from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and its supplemental study, the Consumption and Activities Mail Survey (CAMS), to estimate differences in consumption by survival status to the next survey wave. We quantify the bias in age profiles of consumption that results from differential mortality when estimating the age profiles on cross-sectional data or on synthetic cohort data. We find that the bias is smaller than that found for wealth or income. JF - Michigan Retirement and Disability Research Center Project PB - Michigan Retirement and Disability Research Center, University of Michigan CY - Ann Arbor, MI UR - https://mrdrc.isr.umich.edu/projects/consumption-and-differential-mortality/ U4 - consumption/differential mortality/differential mortality/Socioeconomic Differences/synthetic cohort data/synthetic cohort data/Methodology ER - TY - RPRT T1 - The Effects of the Financial Crisis on Actual and Anticipated Consumption Y1 - 2011 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - Consumption and Savings KW - Net Worth and Assets KW - Public Policy KW - Retirement Planning and Satisfaction AB - We studied how households adjust their spending in response to the financial crisis. Based on five waves of data from the Consumption and Activities Mail Survey, we quantified the reduction in total consumption and in specific categories of consumption in the older population at large and by stock ownership, both as a proxy for wealth and to test assumptions about whether stock ownership was associated with different responses. In particular, we compared consumption changes between 2007 and 2009 with consumption changes over prior years. We used panel data on anticipated changes in spending at retirement to quantify the effects of the financial crisis on well- being in retirement via a difference-in-differences approach. JF - Michigan Retirement and Disability Research Center Working Paper PB - Michigan Retirement and Disability Research Center, University of Michigan CY - Ann Arbor, MI UR - https://mrdrc.isr.umich.edu/pubs/the-effects-of-the-financial-crisis-on-actual-and-anticipated-consumption-2/ U4 - Consumption/household spending/household spending/great Recession/retirement planning ER - TY - RPRT T1 - Inter-Vivos Giving Over the Lifecycle Y1 - 2011 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - James P Smith A1 - Julie M Zissimopoulos KW - Adult children KW - Consumption and Savings KW - Employment and Labor Force KW - Event History/Life Cycle KW - Women and Minorities AB - Inter-vivos cash transfers and bequests between family members total hundreds of billions of dollars each year. They may equalize resources within a generation of a family as well as across family generations. Transfers delayed to the end of life may represent a significant motive for saving. The authors use longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study on inter-vivos transfers that span up to twelve years to: describe financial transfers made by parents to children and their correlation with donor characteristics, examine age patterns in giving behavior, the persistence of transfers, and how transfers change in response to changes in marital status, economic status and health. Their empirical analysis is motivated by a dynamic life-cycle model with intervivos transfers as an argument in the utility function which generates hypotheses about the age pattern of transfers and how mortality risk, risk aversion and economic resources affect giving behavior. JF - RAND Working Paper PB - RAND Corporation CY - Santa Monica, CA U4 - Intertemporal Consumer Choice/Life Cycle Models and Saving/Economics of the Elderly/Economics of the Handicapped/Non-labor Market Discrimination/Intergenerational transfers/life-cycle consumption/household behavior ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Trends in Labor Force Participation: How Much is Due to Changes in Pensions? JF - Journal of Population Ageing Y1 - 2011 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - Pension plantype KW - Retirement KW - Subjective probabilities AB -

In the United States, beginning in the late 1980s there was a substantial increase in the labor force participation of men and women in their 60s. Over the same time period the type of pension plans offered by employers shifted strongly from defined benefit plans to defined contribution plans. Defined benefit plans typically have optimal retirement ages embedded in their structure which induce early retirement, whereas defined contribution plans do not favor any particular retirement age. Based on panel data, this paper quantifies the increase in participation due to the change in pension structure. The main result is that the pension changes account for a considerable part of the increase, but other factors also made a contribution.

VL - 4 IS - 1-2 ER - TY - RPRT T1 - The Effect of the Risk of Out-of-Pocket Spending for Health Care on Economic Preparation for Retirement Y1 - 2010 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - Demographics KW - Healthcare KW - Retirement Planning and Satisfaction AB - After retirement, the primary sources of uncertainty with respect to an individual s economic status are longevity, investment outcomes and out-of-pocket spending on health care. In previous work, we estimated economic preparation for retirement, taking into account the risk of living to an advanced old age and the concomitant risk of running out of resources. But while we accounted for the average level out-of-pocket spending for health care, we did not account for the risk of out-of-pocket spending. In this paper we augment our model for this omission. We find that the risk of out-of-pocket health care spending reduces economic preparation for retirement from about 72 of persons in the age range 65-69 to about 63 . However, this relatively modest reduction is quite unequally distributed: about 57 of single persons are adequately prepared when health care spending is not stochastic, but just 44 when it is. Among single women who are not high school graduates the percentage adequately prepared declines from 33 to 15 . PB - The University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center UR - http://ideas.repec.org/p/mrr/papers/wp232.html U4 - retirement planning/Socioeconomic Status/Out of pocket costs/health care spending ER - TY - RPRT T1 - The Effects of the Economic Crisis on the Older Population Y1 - 2010 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - Employment and Labor Force KW - Public Policy KW - Retirement Planning and Satisfaction AB - We study the effects of the 2007-2009 recession on the population age 55 and older. Households in and near retirement have suffered sizeable losses in assets as a result of the economic crisis. There are a number of ways in which households might respond: reduce spending and with that increase saving, work longer, and/or bequeath less. Using longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study and its supplemental surveys, we find that all of these adjustments have been important. JF - University of Michigan Retirement and Disability Research Center Working Paper PB - The University of Michigan CY - Ann Arbor, MI UR - https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/78348/wp231.pdf?sequence=1 U4 - retirement planning/labor Force Participation/economic crisis/2007-2009 recession ER - TY - CHAP T1 - Spending Patterns in the Older Population T2 - Aging Consumer: Perspectives from Psychology and Economics Y1 - 2010 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder ED - Drolet, A. ED - Schwarz, Norbert ED - Yoon, Carolyn KW - Consumption and Savings KW - Demographics KW - Health Conditions and Status KW - Retirement Planning and Satisfaction AB - This chapter deals with the concrete differences in consumption behavior across a person's life span. Although there is a prevasive belief that households reduce consumption at retirement, the interpretation that consumers adjust their spending after discovering they have fewer economic resources than they had anticipated prior to retirement is not wholly consistent with empirial evidence. The spending habits of older adults are determined by a variety of factors like age, marital status, and economic resources. Specifically, as the population ages, it will tend to spend less on transportation services, vacations, and food; and more on health care and charitable giving. JF - Aging Consumer: Perspectives from Psychology and Economics T3 - Marketing and Consumer Psychology Series PB - Routledge CY - New York SN - 978-1-84872-810-3 U4 - Consumption/retirement planning/older Adults/Spending patterns JO - Spending Patterns in the Older Population ER - TY - RPRT T1 - Aging, Demographics and Memory Study (ADAMS): Sample Design, Weighting and Analysis for ADAMS Y1 - 2009 A1 - Steven G Heeringa A1 - Gwenith G Fisher A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Kenneth M. Langa A1 - Mary Beth Ofstedal A1 - Brenda L Plassman A1 - Rogers, Willard A1 - David R Weir KW - Health Conditions and Status KW - Methodology AB - This technical report describes the sample design, design-based weighting and analysis procedures for the Aging, Demographics and Memory Study (ADAMS), a national study that recruited Health and Retirement Study (HRS) panel members to undergo a psychometric evaluation and clinical assessment visit. Langa et al. (2005) describe the general design and methods for the ADAMS including relevant background on the HRS longitudinal sample. This document provides additional detail on the sample design for the ADAMS including a description of survey sample selection, sample attrition and nonresponse, population weights, design-based variance estimation and related topics of importance to analysts of the ADAMS data. PB - Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan CY - Ann Arbor, Michigan U4 - survey Methods/Sample Design/Cognition ER - TY - CHAP T1 - The Effect of Large Capital Gains or Losses on Retirement T2 - Developments in the economics of aging Y1 - 2009 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Reti, Monika A1 - Susann Rohwedder ED - David A Wise KW - Net Worth and Assets KW - Retirement Planning and Satisfaction JF - Developments in the economics of aging PB - University of Chicago Press CY - Chicago SN - 0-226-90335-4 UR - https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/developments-economics-aging/effect-large-capital-gains-or-losses-retirement U4 - Early Retirement/Wealth Accumulation/Stock Market ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Intervivos Giving in the Older Population: Who Receives Financial Gifts from the Childless? JF - Ageing Soc Y1 - 2009 A1 - Michael D Hurd PB - 29 VL - 29 IS - 8 U1 - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23487586?dopt=Abstract U2 - PMC3593238 U4 - Inter Vivos Transfers/Bequests/Altruism ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Methodological Innovations in Collecting Spending Data: The HRS Consumption and Activities Mail Survey. JF - Fisc Stud Y1 - 2009 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder AB -

It has traditionally been believed that collecting survey measures of total spending necessarily involved asking a large number of questions, too many for inclusion of a comprehensive spending measure in a general-purpose survey. In this paper we report on a supplemental survey to the Health and Retirement Study that took up this challenge. We discuss issues that arise designing a survey module to collect spending data with strict time constraints, describe how the implementation in the Consumption and Activities Mail Survey (CAMS) played out, and elicit anomalies that more detailed analysis of data quality revealed. We report how we addressed some of these anomalies in subsequent waves of CAMS. Other anomalies required conducting additional randomized experiments to find what explains the observed patterns. The results highlight the tension between asking about spending using a long time frame, which exacerbates recall bias, versus using a short time frame, which risks relying on an unrepresentative snapshot of a household's spending to proxy the total for the last 12 months. An important complicating factor in deciding which goods should be put into which time frames is that there is substantial heterogeneity in the frequency of spending across households even for the same category of spending.

PB - 30 VL - 30 UR - URL:http://www.wiley.com/bw/journal.asp?ref=0143-5671 Publisher's URL IS - 3-4 N1 - Journal Article U1 - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21052480?dopt=Abstract U2 - PMC2967775 U4 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic/Microeconomic Data Management/Survey Methods/Consumer/Consumer Economics/Northern America/Households/Survey ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Subjective Probabilities in Household Surveys. JF - Annu Rev Econom Y1 - 2009 A1 - Michael D Hurd AB -

Subjective probabilities are now collected on a number of large household surveys with the objective of providing data to better understand inter-temporal decision making. Comparison of subjective probabilities with actual outcomes shows that the probabilities have considerable predictive power in situations where individuals have considerable private information such as survival and retirement. In contrast the subjective probability of a stock market gain varies greatly across individuals even though no one has private information and the outcome is the same for everyone. An explanation is that there is considerable variation in accessing and processing information. Further, the subjective probability of a stock market gain is considerably lower than historical averages, providing an explanation for the relatively low frequency of stock holding. An important research objective will be to understand how individuals form their subjective probabilities.

PB - 1 VL - 1 UR - http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.economics.050708.142955 U1 - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21643535?dopt=Abstract U2 - PMC3106311 U4 - stock market expectations/subjective survival/retirement expectations/focal point responses/PORTFOLIO CHOICE/SOCIAL-SECURITY/PANEL DATA/RETIREMENT/EXPECTATIONS/HEALTH/SURVIVAL/MODELS/RETURNS ER - TY - RPRT T1 - Adequacy of Economic Resources in Retirement and Returns-to-scale in Consumption Y1 - 2008 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - Consumption and Savings KW - Health Conditions and Status KW - Net Worth and Assets AB - Most assessments of the adequacy of retirement resources are expressed as a comparison of preretirement income to immediate post-retirement income. Yet, among couples a substantial fraction of retirement years is eventually spent by the surviving spouse living alone. To the extent that singles need less than couples to maintain the same standard of living, assessments of the adequacy of economic resources that make no adjustment for widowing will systematically misstate economic preparation. We estimate returns-to-scale parameters in spending by older households, using data from the Consumption and Activities Mail Survey and apply these to assessments of adequacy of retirement resources. PB - The University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center UR - http://www.mrrc.isr.umich.edu/publications/papers U4 - Retirement Wealth/Consumption/Survivors ER - TY - RPRT T1 - The Characteristics of Social Security Beneficiaries Who Claim Benefits at the Early Entitlement Age Y1 - 2008 A1 - Xiaoyan Li A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Loughran, David KW - Retirement Planning and Satisfaction KW - Social Security PB - AARP Public Policy Institute UR - http://assets.aarp.org/rgcenter/econ/2008_19_beneficiaries.pdf U4 - social Security/retirement planning/early Retirement ER - TY - CHAP T1 - Pathways to Disability: Predicting Health Trajectories T2 - Health at Older Ages: The Causes and Consequences of Declining Disability Y1 - 2008 A1 - Florian Heiss A1 - Axel Borsch-Supan A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - David A Wise ED - David M Cutler ED - David A Wise KW - Disabilities KW - Healthcare JF - Health at Older Ages: The Causes and Consequences of Declining Disability SN - 0-226-13231-5 UR - https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/health-older-ages-causes-and-consequences-declining-disability-among-elderly/pathways-disability-predicting-health-trajectories U4 - DISABILITY/DISABILITY/health trajectories/health trajectories ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Prevalence of cognitive impairment without dementia in the United States. JF - Ann Intern Med Y1 - 2008 A1 - Brenda L Plassman A1 - Kenneth M. Langa A1 - Gwenith G Fisher A1 - Steven G Heeringa A1 - David R Weir A1 - Mary Beth Ofstedal A1 - James R Burke A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Guy G Potter A1 - Willard L Rodgers A1 - David C Steffens A1 - John J McArdle A1 - Robert J. Willis A1 - Robert B Wallace KW - Aged KW - Aged, 80 and over KW - Cognition Disorders KW - Dementia KW - disease progression KW - Humans KW - Longitudinal Studies KW - Prevalence KW - United States AB -

BACKGROUND: Cognitive impairment without dementia is associated with increased risk for disability, increased health care costs, and progression to dementia. There are no population-based prevalence estimates of this condition in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of cognitive impairment without dementia in the United States and determine longitudinal cognitive and mortality outcomes.

DESIGN: Longitudinal study from July 2001 to March 2005.

SETTING: In-home assessment for cognitive impairment.

PARTICIPANTS: Participants in ADAMS (Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study) who were age 71 years or older drawn from the nationally representative HRS (Health and Retirement Study). Of 1770 selected individuals, 856 completed initial assessment, and of 241 selected individuals, 180 completed 16- to 18-month follow-up assessment.

MEASUREMENTS: Assessments, including neuropsychological testing, neurologic examination, and clinical and medical history, were used to assign a diagnosis of normal cognition, cognitive impairment without dementia, or dementia. National prevalence rates were estimated by using a population-weighted sample.

RESULTS: In 2002, an estimated 5.4 million people (22.2%) in the United States age 71 years or older had cognitive impairment without dementia. Prominent subtypes included prodromal Alzheimer disease (8.2%) and cerebrovascular disease (5.7%). Among participants who completed follow-up assessments, 11.7% with cognitive impairment without dementia progressed to dementia annually, whereas those with subtypes of prodromal Alzheimer disease and stroke progressed at annual rates of 17% to 20%. The annual death rate was 8% among those with cognitive impairment without dementia and almost 15% among those with cognitive impairment due to medical conditions.

LIMITATIONS: Only 56% of the nondeceased target sample completed the initial assessment. Population sampling weights were derived to adjust for at least some of the potential bias due to nonresponse and attrition.

CONCLUSION: Cognitive impairment without dementia is more prevalent in the United States than dementia, and its subtypes vary in prevalence and outcomes.

PB - 148 VL - 148 IS - 6 U1 - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18347351?dopt=Abstract U2 - PMC2670458 U4 - Cognitive Functioning/Dementia/Health Risk/PREVALENCE ER - TY - RPRT T1 - The Retirement Consumption Puzzle: Actual Spending Change in Panel Data Y1 - 2008 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - Event History/Life Cycle KW - Health Conditions and Status KW - Retirement Planning and Satisfaction AB - The simple one-good model of life-cycle consumption requires that consumption be continuous over retirement; yet prior research based on partial measures of consumption or on synthetic panels indicates that spending drops at retirement, a result that has been called the retirement-consumption puzzle. Using panel data on total spending, nondurable spending and food spending, we find that spending declines at small rates over retirement, at rates that could be explained by mechanisms such as the cessation of work-related expenses, unexpected retirement due to a health shock or by the substitution of time for spending. In the low-wealth population where spending did decline at higher rates, the main explanation for the decline appears to be a high rate of early retirement due to poor health. We conclude that at the population level there is no retirement consumption puzzle in our data, and that in subpopulations where there were substantial declines, conventional economic theory can provide the main explanation. JF - NBER Working Paper PB - National Bureau of Economic Research CY - Cambridge, MA U4 - life-cycle consumption/retirement planning/spending patterns ER - TY - RPRT T1 - Wealth Change and Active Saving at Older Ages Y1 - 2008 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - Consumption and Savings KW - Event History/Life Cycle KW - Net Worth and Assets AB - According to the simple lifecycle model single persons are predicted to decumulate assets at advanced age, when mortality risk is high to reduce the risk of dying with substantial wealth. Empirically it has been difficult to show this prediction in micro data. In this paper we discuss the most common limitations in existing data. We provide empirical evidence of dissaving at older ages by single persons using the unusually rich data from the Health and Retirement Study. We present lifecycle patterns of dissaving based on three very different kinds of data: those that are derived from wealth change, those derived from measures of active saving defined as disposable income minus consumption and those that are derived from model simulation. Based on wealth change we find evidence of dissaving for singles and limited evidence for couples: couples preserve wealth longer to provide for the surviving spouse. However, rates of active saving imply much smaller wealth decumulation for singles and no decumulation at all for couples. Decumulation based on model simulation lies between the two. We suspect that the discrepancies are partly due to the treatment of taxes and partly due to consumption being under measured. PB - RAND and Netspar U4 - life Cycle/Asset accumulation/Dissaving/wealth ER - TY - RPRT T1 - Enhancing the Quality of Data on the Measurement of Income and Wealth Y1 - 2007 A1 - Juster, F. Thomas A1 - Cao, Honggao A1 - Mick P. Couper A1 - Daniel H. Hill A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Joseph P. Lupton A1 - Michael M. Perry A1 - James P Smith KW - Income KW - Methodology KW - Net Worth and Assets AB - Over the last decade or so, a substantial effort has gone into the design of a series of methodological investigations aimed at enhancing the quality of survey data on income and wealth. These investigations have largely been conducted at the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan, and have mainly involved two longitudinal surveys: the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), with a first wave beginning in 1992 and continued thereafter every other year through 2004; and the Assets and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) Study, begun in 1993 and continued in 1995 and 1998, then in every other year through 2004. Surveys for the year 2006 are currently in the field. This paper provides an overview of the main studies and summarizes what has been learned so far. The studies include; a paper by Juster and Smith (Improving the Quality of Economic Data: Lessons from the HRS and AHEAD, JASA, 1997); a paper by Juster, Cao, Perry and Couper (The Effect of Unfolding Brackets on the Quality of Wealth Data in HRS, MRRC Working Paper, WP 2006-113, January 2006); a paper by Hurd, Juster and Smith (Enhancing the Quality of Data on Income: Recent Innovations from the HRS, Journal of Human Resources, Summer 2003); a paper by Juster, Lupton and Cao (Ensuring Time-Series Consistency in Estimates of Income and Wealth, MRRC Working Paper, WP 2002-030, July 2002); a paper by Cao and Juster (Correcting Second-Home Equity in HRS/AHEAD: MRRC Working Paper WP 2004-081, June 2004); and a paper by Rohwedder, Haider and Hurd (RAND Working Paper, 2004). JF - Michigan Retirement and Disability Research Center Research Paper PB - Michigan Retirement and Disability Research Center, University of Michigan CY - Ann Arbor, MI UR - https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1095815 U4 - Methodology/Data Quality/income/Wealth ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Prevalence of dementia in the United States: the aging, demographics, and memory study. JF - Neuroepidemiology Y1 - 2007 A1 - Brenda L Plassman A1 - Kenneth M. Langa A1 - Gwenith G Fisher A1 - Steven G Heeringa A1 - David R Weir A1 - Mary Beth Ofstedal A1 - James R Burke A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Guy G Potter A1 - Willard L Rodgers A1 - David C Steffens A1 - Robert J. Willis A1 - Robert B Wallace KW - Age Distribution KW - Aged KW - Aged, 80 and over KW - Cohort Studies KW - Dementia KW - Female KW - Geriatric Assessment KW - Health Surveys KW - Humans KW - Logistic Models KW - Male KW - Prevalence KW - Sex Distribution KW - United States AB -

AIM: To estimate the prevalence of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and other dementias in the USA using a nationally representative sample.

METHODS: The Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study sample was composed of 856 individuals aged 71 years and older from the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study (HRS) who were evaluated for dementia using a comprehensive in-home assessment. An expert consensus panel used this information to assign a diagnosis of normal cognition, cognitive impairment but not demented, or dementia (and dementia subtype). Using sampling weights derived from the HRS, we estimated the national prevalence of dementia, AD and vascular dementia by age and gender.

RESULTS: The prevalence of dementia among individuals aged 71 and older was 13.9%, comprising about 3.4 million individuals in the USA in 2002. The corresponding values for AD were 9.7% and 2.4 million individuals. Dementia prevalence increased with age, from 5.0% of those aged 71-79 years to 37.4% of those aged 90 and older.

CONCLUSIONS: Dementia prevalence estimates from this first nationally representative population-based study of dementia in the USA to include subjects from all regions of the country can provide essential information for effective planning for the impending healthcare needs of the large and increasing number of individuals at risk for dementia as our population ages.

PB - 29 VL - 29 IS - 1-2 U1 - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17975326?dopt=Abstract U4 - aging/Dementia/Epidemiology ER - TY - CHAP T1 - Trends in Pension Values Around Retirement T2 - Redefining Retirement: How Will Boomers Fare? Y1 - 2007 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - Net Worth and Assets JF - Redefining Retirement: How Will Boomers Fare? PB - Oxford University Press CY - New York, NY N1 - ProCite field 6 : In ProCite field 8 : eds U4 - Pension Wealth/Retirement Wealth JO - Trends in Pension Values Around Retirement ER - TY - RPRT T1 - Alternative Measures of Replacement Rates Y1 - 2006 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - Consumption and Savings KW - Income AB - This study finds that on average those just past the usual retirement age are adequately prepared for retirement in that they will be able to follow a path of consumption that begins at their current level of consumption and then follows an age-pattern similar to that of current retirees. That pattern is similar to what would be found from a theoretically derived and estimated life-cycle model. Thus we do not find inadequate preparation for retirement on average or even at the median. This is not true, however, for all groups in the population. In particular, singles lacking a high school education are likely to be forced to reduce consumption: some 62 would have died with negative wealth had they followed the consumption path given by our data. Future research will show the extent to which this percentage is over-estimated because we did not account for differential mortality. JF - Michigan Retirement Research Center Research Project PB - Michigan Retirement Research Center, University of Michigan CY - Ann Arbor, MI UR - https://mrdrc.isr.umich.edu/projects/alternative-measures-of-replacement-rates/ U4 - Consumption/retirement adequacy ER - TY - RPRT T1 - Consumption and Economic Well-Being at Older Ages: Income- and Consumption-Based Poverty Measures in the HRS Y1 - 2006 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - Consumption and Savings KW - Health Conditions and Status KW - Income KW - Methodology AB - According to economic theory, well-being or utility depends on consumption. However, at the household level, total consumption is rarely well measured because its collection requires a great deal of survey time. As a result income has been widely used to assess well-being and poverty rates. Yet, because households can use wealth to consume more than income, so an income-based measure of well-being could yield misleading results for many households. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study to find income-based poverty rates which we compare with poverty rates as measured in the Current Population Survey. We use HRS consumption data to calculate a consumption-based poverty rate and study the relationship between income-based and consumption-based poverty measures. We find that a poverty rate based on consumption is lower than an income-based poverty rate. Particularly noteworthy is the much lower rate among the oldest single persons such as widows. The explanation for the difference is the ability to consume out of wealth. JF - RAND Working Paper PB - RAND Corporation CY - Santa Monica, CA U4 - Consumption/Methods/Well Being/Income/Poverty ER - TY - JOUR T1 - The Aging, Demographics and Memory Study: Study Design and Methods JF - Neuroepidemiology Y1 - 2005 A1 - Kenneth M. Langa A1 - Brenda L Plassman A1 - Robert B Wallace A1 - A. Regula Herzog A1 - Steven G Heeringa A1 - Mary Beth Ofstedal A1 - James F. Burke A1 - Gwenith G Fisher A1 - Fultz, Nancy H. A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Guy G Potter A1 - Willard L Rodgers A1 - David C Steffens A1 - David R Weir KW - Health Conditions and Status KW - Healthcare AB - Objective: We describe the design and methods of the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study (ADAMS), a new national study that will provide data on the antecedents, prevalence, outcomes, and costs of dementia and cognitive impairment, not demented (CIND) using a unique study design based on the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study (HRS). We also illustrate potential uses of the ADAMS data and provide information to interested researchers on obtaining ADAMS and HRS data. Methods: The ADAMS is the first population-based study of dementia in the United States to include subjects from all regions of the country, while at the same time using a single standardized diagnostic protocol in a community-based sample. A sample of 856 individuals aged 70 or older who were participants in the on-going HRS received an extensive in-home clinical and neuropsychological assessment to determine a diagnosis of normal, CIND, or dementia. Within the CIND and dementia categories, subcategories (e.g., Alzheimer disease, vascular dementia) were assigned to denote the etiology of cognitive impairment. Conclusion: Linking the ADAMS dementia clinical assessment data to the wealth of available longitudinal HRS data on health, health care utilization, informal care, and economic resources and behavior, will provide a unique opportunity to study the onset of CIND and dementia in a nationally-representative population-based sample, as well as the risk factors, prevalence, outcomes, and costs of CIND and dementia. PB - 25 VL - 25 U4 - Aging/Dementia/Epidemiology ER - TY - RPRT T1 - Changes in Consumption and Activities in Retirement Y1 - 2005 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - Consumption and Savings KW - Event History/Life Cycle KW - Retirement Planning and Satisfaction AB - The simple one-good model of life-cycle consumption requires consumption smoothing. According to previous results based on partial spending and on synthetic panels, British and U.S. households apparently reduce consumption at retirement. The reduction cannot be explained by the simple one-good life-cycle model, so it has been referred to as the retirement-consumption puzzle. An interpretation is that at retirement individuals discover they have fewer economic resources than they had anticipated prior to retirement, and as a consequence reduce consumption. This interpretation challenges the life-cycle model where consumers are assumed to be forward looking. Using panel data on anticipated consumption changes at retirement and on recollected consumption changes following retirement, we find that the median recollected change in spending at retirement is zero and that the recollections are broadly consistent with anticipations. Based on a measure of total spending in true panel we find that the actual mean and median changes are slightly positive. Therefore, we find no retirement-consumption puzzle. PB - The University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center UR - http://www.mrrc.isr.umich.edu/publications/papers/ U4 - Retirement Behavior/Consumption/Life Cycle Models and Saving ER - TY - CHAP T1 - Healthy, Wealthy, and Knowing Where to Live: Trajectories of Health, Wealth, and Living Arrangements among the Oldest Old T2 - Analyses in the Economics of Aging Y1 - 2005 A1 - Florian Heiss A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Axel Borsch-Supan ED - David A Wise KW - Consumption and Savings KW - Health Conditions and Status KW - Net Worth and Assets AB - There are many mechanisms that suggest that living arrangements and well-being derived from health and economic status are closely related. This paper investigates the joint evolution of the three conditions, using a microeconometric approach similar to what is known as vector autoregressions (VAR) in the macroeconomics literature. JF - Analyses in the Economics of Aging PB - University of Chicago Press CY - Chicago N1 - ProCite field 6 : In ProCite field 8 : ed. U4 - Health Status/Wealth/Living Standards JO - Healthy, Wealthy, and Knowing Where to Live: Trajectories of Health, Wealth, and Living Arrangements among the Oldest Old ER - TY - CHAP T1 - Individual Subjective Survival Curves T2 - Analyses in the Economics of Aging Y1 - 2005 A1 - Gan, Li A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Daniel McFadden ED - David A Wise KW - Expectations AB - Testing life-cycle models and other economic models of saving and consumption at micro level requires knowledge of individuals' subjective believes of their mortality risk. Previous studies have shown that individual responses on subjective survival probabilities are generally consistent with life tables. However, survey responses suffer serious problems caused by focal responses of zero and one. This paper suggests using a Bayesian update model that accounts for the problems encountered in focal responses. We also propose models that help us to identify how much each individual deviates from life table in her subjective belief. The resulting individual subjective survival curves have considerable variations and are readily applicable in testing economic models that require individual subjective life expectancies. JF - Analyses in the Economics of Aging PB - University of Chicago Press CY - Chicago UR - https://www.nber.org/chapters/c10367 N1 - RDA ProCite field 6 : In ProCite field 8 : ed. U4 - Subjective Probabilities of Survival ER - TY - RPRT T1 - The Division of Bequests Y1 - 2004 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - James P Smith KW - Adult children PB - RAND U4 - Bequest Motives/Bequests ER - TY - RPRT T1 - Increases in Wealth Among the Elderly in the Early 1990s: How Much is Due to Survey Design? Y1 - 2004 A1 - Susann Rohwedder A1 - Steven Haider A1 - Michael D Hurd KW - Methodology KW - Net Worth and Assets AB - The Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) study shows a large increase in reported total wealth between 1993 and 1995. Such an increase is not found in other US household surveys around that period. This paper examines one source of this difference. We find that in AHEAD 1993 ownership rates of stocks, CDs, bonds, and checking and saving accounts were underreported, resulting in under-measurement of wealth in 1993, and a substantial increase in wealth from 1993 to 1995. The explanation for the under-reporting is a combination of question sequence and wording in the AHEAD survey instrument. JF - NBER Working Paper PB - The National Bureau of Economic Research CY - Cambridge, MA U4 - Wealth/Survey Methods ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Enhancing the Quality of Data on Income: Recent Innovations from the HRS JF - Journal of Human Resources Y1 - 2003 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Juster, F. Thomas A1 - James P Smith KW - Income KW - Methodology AB - This paper evaluates two survey innovations introduced in the HRS that aimed to improve income measurement. The innovations are (1) the integration of questions for income and wealth and (2) matching the periodicity over which income questions are asked to the typical way such income is received. Both innovations had significant impacts in improving the quality of income reports. For example, the integration of income questions into the asset module produced in HRS an across-wave 63 percent increase in the amount of income derived from financial assets, real estate investments and farm and business equity. Similarly, asking respondents to answer using a time interval consistent with how income is received substantially improved the quality of reports on social security income. Fortunately, we also suggest ways that these innovations can be introduced into other major social science surveys. PB - 38 VL - 38 IS - 3 U4 - HRS content and design/Microeconomic Data Management/Income ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Health, Wealth, and the Role of Institutions JF - Journal of Human Resources Y1 - 2003 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Arie Kapteyn KW - Demographics KW - Health Conditions and Status AB - A positive relationship between socioeconomic status and health has been observed over many populations and many time periods. One of the factors mediating this relation is the institutional environment in which people function. We consider longitudinal data from two countries with very different institutional environments. the United States and The Netherlands. To structure the empirical analysis. we develop a theoretical model relating changes in health status to income and changes in income to health status. We show that income or wealth inequality is closely connected with health inequality. We empirically estimate counterparts to the theoretical relationships with generally corroborative results. PB - 38 VL - 38 UR - http://www.nber.org/ confer/2001/si2001/hurd.pdf IS - 2 U4 - Socioeconomic Status/Health ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Healthy, wealthy, and wise? Tests for direct casual paths between health and socioeconomic status JF - Journal of Econometrics Y1 - 2003 A1 - Adams, Peter A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Daniel McFadden A1 - Merrill, Angela A1 - Ribeiro, Tiago KW - Demographics KW - Health Conditions and Status KW - Socioeconomic factors AB - This paper provides statistical methods that permit the association of socioeconomic status and health to be partially unraveled in panel data by excluding some postulated causal paths, or delimiting their range of action. These methods are applied to the Asset and Health Dynamics of the Oldest Old (AHEAD) Panel to test for the absence of causal links from socioeconomic status (SES) to health innovations and mortality, and from health conditions to innovations in wealth. We conclude that in this elderly American population, where Medicare covers most acute care and pension income is not affected by ability to work, the evidence supports the hypothesis of no direct causal link from SES to mortality and to incidence of most sudden onset health conditions (accidents and some acute conditions), once initial health conditions are controlled, but there is an association of SES with incidence of gradual onset health conditions (mental conditions, and some degenerative and chronic conditions), due either to causal links or to persistent unobserved behavioral or genetic factors that have a common influence on both SES and innovations in health. There is little evidence to support a broad association of health conditions and wealth changes. The death of a spouse appears to have a negative effect on the wealth of the survivor; this is plausibly a direct causal effect. There is evidence for some association of health conditions with increased dissaving from liquid wealth for intact couples and singles. From these findings, we conclude that there is no evidence that SES-linked therapies for acute diseases induce mortality differentials. The question of whether SES linked preventative care influences onset of chronic and mental diseases remains open. PB - 112 VL - 112 UR - http://emlab.berkeley.edu/users/mjansson/Courses/ECON242_SPRING02/McFadden.pdf IS - 1 N1 - RDA; National Institute on Aging through a grant to the NBER Program Project on the Economics of Aging (P01-AG 05842) ER - TY - CHAP T1 - Leaving Bequests: By Accident or by Design? T2 - Death and Dollars: The role of gifts and bequests in America Y1 - 2003 A1 - Michael D Hurd ED - Alicia H. Munnell ED - Sundén, Annika KW - Adult children AB - The life-cycle model of consumption is the standard model for the analysis of consumption and saving over the life cycle.¹ The model specifies that people save during their working lives, and then consume their savings in retirement. The claim that a large fraction of household wealth is the result of inheritances has stimulated substantial interest in a bequest motive for saving. While large bequests are not necessarily at odds with simple life-cycle saving, they could also indicate that people are actively saving in order to make such transfers. JF - Death and Dollars: The role of gifts and bequests in America PB - The Brookings Institution Press CY - Washington, DC N1 - ProCite field 8 : eds U4 - Bequests/Bequest Motives ER - TY - RPRT T1 - The Retirement-Consumption Puzzle: Anticipated and Actual Declines in Spending at Retirement Y1 - 2003 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Susann Rohwedder KW - Consumption and Savings KW - Retirement Planning and Satisfaction AB - The simple one-good model of life-cycle consumption requires consumption smoothing. However, British and U.S. households apparently reduce consumption at retirement and the reduction cannot be explained by the life-cycle model. An interpretation is that retirees are surprised by the inadequacy of resources. This interpretation challenges the life-cycle model where consumers are forward looking. However, data on anticipated consumption changes at retirement and on realized consumption changes following retirement show that the reductions are fully anticipated. Apparently the decline is due to the cessation of work-related expenses and the substitution of home production for market-purchased goods and services. JF - NBER Working Paper PB - The National Bureau of Economic Research CY - Cambridge, MA U4 - Consumption/Saving/Retirement Behavior ER - TY - RPRT T1 - The Effects of Changing Social Security Administation's Early Entitlement Age and the Normal Retirement Age Y1 - 2002 A1 - Panis, Constantijn A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Loughran, David A1 - Julie M Zissimopoulos A1 - Steven Haider A1 - Patricia A St Clair KW - Methodology KW - Retirement Planning and Satisfaction KW - Test AB - The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) program is projected to be unable to meet its obligations by approximately the year 2041. Many proposals that aim to restore solvency include provisions to accelerate the already legislated increase of the normal retirement age (NRA) or to increase it beyond the current target of 67 years; some proposals also suggest raising the early entitlement age (EEA) beyond 62 years. This document sheds light on the implications of EEA and/or NRA increases on the solvency of the OASI and DI programs. It does not discuss private accounts. The report starts with a characterization of workers who claim benefits at age 62 and a discussion of retirement planning. We then estimate formal models of retirement and DI application and simulate the financial consequences of EEA and/or NRA increases and other policy proposals. We conclude with an assessment of likely responses of employers to changes in Social Security policy. Most analyses in this report are based on the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a survey of individuals in their 50s and 60s with very extensive information about work, financial resources including Social security and private pensions, and health. JF - Social Security Administration: Labor & Population Program PB - Washington, DC, RAND Labor and Population Program; Prepared for the Social Security Administration UR - https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/contractreports/agereport.pdf N1 - RDA 2000-010 U4 - Retirement Behavior/Social Security Research ER - TY - RPRT T1 - Expected Bequests and their Distribution Y1 - 2002 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - James P Smith KW - Adult children KW - Consumption and Savings AB - Based on a sample of actual bequests that is population-representative and on the subjective probability of bequests, we estimate the distribution of bequests that the older population will make. We find that the distribution is highly skewed, so that the typical baby-boom person will receive a very modest inheritance. This is partly due to the skewed distribution of wealth and partly due to the tendency of the wealthy to have fewer children. But it is also due to anticipated dissaving: we estimate that households in the age band 70-74 will bequeath just 39 of their wealth, consuming the rest before they die. PB - National Bureau of Economic Research UR - http://papers.nber.org/papers/w9142 N1 - National Institute on Aging U4 - Dissaving/Bequests ER - TY - JOUR T1 - The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival JF - The Economic Journal Y1 - 2002 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Kathleen McGarry KW - Expectations KW - Methodology AB - Although expectations, or more precisely subjective probability distributions, play a prominent role in models of decision making under uncertainty, we have had very little data on them. Based on panel data from the Health and Retirement Study, we study the evolution of subjective survival probabilities and their ability to predict actual mortality. In panel, respondents modify their survival probabilities in response to new information such as the onset of a new disease condition. Subjective survival probabilities predict actual survival: those who survived in the panel reported survival probabilities approximately 50 greater at baseline than those who died. PB - 112 VL - 112 UR - https://www.jstor.org/stable/798539 IS - 482 N1 - ProCite field 19 : NBER U4 - Survival/Subjective Probability ER - TY - RPRT T1 - Saving for Retirement: Wage Growth and Unexpected Events Y1 - 2002 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Julie M Zissimopoulos KW - Consumption and Savings AB - We found that there is a perception of ‘under-saving’ for retirement among many individuals. Individuals who perceive they have saved inadequately attribute this mainly to having insufficient income. Under a lifecycle model of consumption with a known income path this is not a reasonable answer. Those with low income today who fail to save will have even lower consumption levels in the future and could increase lifetime utility by reallocating consumption from pre-retirement to post-retirement. Unexpected outcomes in earnings, however, may cause households that planned to reach retirement with adequate savings, not to realize their plans. The decline in real wages that began in 1973 suggests a compelling explanation for low wealth levels: individuals were surprised by low earnings growth and thus under-saved relative to their lifetime incomes. We find that the hypothesis fits the data for those with extreme outcomes but does not explain large wealth differences for individuals on average. JF - MRDRC Projects PB - Michigan Retirement and Disability Research Center, University of Michigan CY - Ann Arbor, MI UR - https://mrdrc.isr.umich.edu/projects/saving-for-retirement-wage-growth-and-unexpected-events/ U4 - Retirement Saving ER - TY - RPRT T1 - Workers Who Take Early Social Security Retirement Benefits Y1 - 2002 A1 - Julie M Zissimopoulos A1 - Panis, Constantijn A1 - Michael D Hurd KW - Retirement Planning and Satisfaction KW - Social Security AB - The objectives of this analysis are to shed light on the differences between workers who take early Social Security retirement benefits and those that postpone claiming, and to identify the types of individuals that would be particularly vulnerable to an increase in the Early Entitlement Age (EEA) above its current level of age 62. Generally speaking, we find workers who accept early retirement benefits are less likely to be college educated, less likely to be in management positions or to be professionals and more likely to have left the labor force before age 62. There are no large differences in financial wealth between Takers and Postponers, except for in pension wealth. Takers are much less likely to be covered by a pension plan and have lower pension wealth than Postponers. Moreover, while quite healthy on average, Takers are more likely to be in poorer health than workers who postpone benefits. This difference is particularly important for understanding the impact of raising the EEA. Individuals with a limited ability to continue working past age 62 due to health problems may experience substantial welfare losses in case of an increase in the EEA. Among a particularly vulnerable group of Takers, those in poor health and without pension entitlement, we find that more than half have a physically demanding job. These workers are particularly likely to apply for DI benefits in case of an increase of the EEA, which would add to rather than reduce total Social Security outlays. PB - Washington, DC, RAND Labor and Population Program; Prepared for the Social Security Administration N1 - RDA 2000-010 U4 - Retirement Planning/Early Retirement/Social Security ER - TY - CHAP T1 - Anticipated and Actual Bequests T2 - Themes in the Economics of Aging Y1 - 2001 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - James P Smith ED - David A Wise KW - Adult children KW - Consumption and Savings KW - Demographics KW - Event History/Life Cycle KW - Health Conditions and Status AB - This paper uses data on anticipated bequests from two waves of the Health and Retirement Study and the Asset and Health Dynamics of the Oldest Old (AHEAD), and on actual bequests from AHEAD. Actual bequests were measured in exit interviews given by proxy respondents for 774 AHEAD respondents who died between waves 1 and 2. Because the exit interview is representative of the elderly population, the distribution of estate values is quite different from that obtained from estate records, which represent just a wealthy subset of the population. Anticipated bequests were measured by the subjective probability of leaving bequests. Between waves 1 and 2, increases in bequest probabilities were associated with increases in the subjective probability of surviving, increments in household wealth, and widowing while out-of-pocket medical expenses reduced the likelihood of a bequest. By comparing bequest probabilities with baseline wealth we were able to test a main prediction of the life-cycle model, that individuals will dissave at advanced old-age. The AHEAD respondents anticipate substantial dissaving before they die. JF - Themes in the Economics of Aging PB - University of Chicago Press CY - Chicago, IL UR - http://www.nber.org N1 - ProCite field 6 : In ProCite field 8 : ed. U4 - Altruism/Intertemporal Consumer Choice/Life Cycle Models and Saving/Health Production--Nutrition, Mortality, Morbidity, Disability, and Economic Behavior/Economics of the Elderly/Bequests/Elderly/Life Cycle Models/Dissaving/Estate Values/Health JO - Anticipated and Actual Bequests ER - TY - CHAP T1 - Predictors of Mortality among the Elderly T2 - Themes in the Economics of Aging Y1 - 2001 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Daniel McFadden A1 - Merrill, Angela ED - David A Wise KW - Demographics KW - Expectations KW - Health Conditions and Status KW - Net Worth and Assets AB - This paper examines the quantitative importance of some predictors of mortality among the population aged 70 and over. As expected, this research confirms that socioeconomic status is related to mortality. This relationship is strong at younger ages and appears to weaken as the cohort gets older. The 13 health indicators are also strong predictors of mortality. Results also show that subjective probabilities of survival predict mortality and remain strong predictors even after controlling for socioeconomic indicators and health conditions. JF - Themes in the Economics of Aging PB - Univ. of Chicago Press CY - Chicago UR - https://www.nber.org/papers/w7440 N1 - ProCite field 8 : ed. U4 - Basic Demographics/Economic Status/Health Status/Subjective Probabilities of Survival/Mortality Rates between waves 1 and 2 of the AHEAD JO - Predictors of Mortality among the Elderly ER - TY - RPRT T1 - Patterns of Dissaving in Retirement Y1 - 2000 A1 - Steven Haider A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Reardon, Elaine A1 - Williamson, Stephanie KW - Consumption and Savings KW - Net Worth and Assets KW - Retirement Planning and Satisfaction AB - Abstract: Examined patterns of dissaving among households with at least one older adult. Data were obtained from the Social Security Administration's New Beneficiary Data System (NBDS) on older adults (mainly those aged 62-65) who received Social Security benefits for the first time in 1980-1981 and who were interviewed in 1982 and 1991. Data were also obtained from the 1993 and 1995 waves of the National Institute on Aging's Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) survey of adults aged 70 and older. Multivariate analyses indicated that changes in wealth were fairly flat in the 1980s (based on NBDS data), with mean wealth growing just under one percent per year for the 9 years of the sample period, while median wealth declined by about one-quarter of a percentage point per year. The AHEAD data from the 1990s suggest that most adults aged 70 and older enjoyed wealth increases, which in large part were due to the dramatic rise in stock prices over the 2 years of the survey period. Overall, there was increasing wealth inequality, with less well off households dissaving more rapidly than better off households. Households in which health declined between the waves studied were more likely to dissave. Savings patterns of households with and without children were fairly similar. Two appendixes provide information on the study methodology and additional data tables PB - AARP Public Policy Institute CY - Washington, D.C. UR - https://assets.aarp.org/rgcenter/econ/2000_10_dissaving.pdf U4 - Assets/Wealth/RETIREMENT/Dissaving ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Anchoring and Acquiescence Bias in Measuring Assets in Household Surveys JF - Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Y1 - 1999 A1 - Michael D Hurd KW - Methodology AB - Cognitive psychology has identified and studied extensively a number of cognitive anomalies that may be important for the assessment of the economic status of individuals and households. In particular the use of brackets to elicit information about income and assets in surveys of households can interact with acquiescence bias and anchoring to cause bias in the estimates of the distributions of income and assets. This paper uses data from the Health and Retirement Study and the Asset and Health Dynamics Study to find that, as predicted by psychology, bracketing can produce bias in population estimates of assets. PB - 19 VL - 19 N1 - ProCite field 3 : RAND, SUNY, Stony Brook, and NBER U4 - Microeconomic Data Management/Survey Methods ER - TY - CHAP T1 - The Association of Influenza Vaccine Receipt with Health and Economic Expectations among Elders: The AHEAD Study T2 - Wealth, work, and health: Innovations in measurement in the social sciences: Essays in honor of F. Thomas Juster Y1 - 1999 A1 - Robert B Wallace A1 - Nichols, Sara A1 - Michael D Hurd ED - James P Smith ED - Robert J. Willis KW - Consumption and Savings KW - Expectations KW - Health Conditions and Status KW - Methodology JF - Wealth, work, and health: Innovations in measurement in the social sciences: Essays in honor of F. Thomas Juster PB - University of Michigan Press CY - Ann Arbor, MI N1 - ProCite field[8]: eds. U4 - Health Production/Health Behavior/Economic Behavior/Expectations of Future Events/Economics of the Elderly/Microeconomic Data Management/Health JO - The Association of Influenza Vaccine Receipt with Health and Economic Expectations among Elders: The AHEAD Study ER - TY - CHAP T1 - Labor Market Transitions in the HRS: Effects of the Subjective Probability of Retirement and of Pension Eligibility T2 - Wealth, Work and Health: Innovations in Measurement in the Social Sciences Y1 - 1999 A1 - Michael D Hurd ED - James P Smith ED - Robert J. Willis KW - Employment and Labor Force KW - Expectations KW - Pensions JF - Wealth, Work and Health: Innovations in Measurement in the Social Sciences PB - University of Michigan Press CY - Ann Arbor, MI N1 - ProCite field 8 : eds. U4 - Labor/Pensions/Subjective Probabilities JO - Labor Market Transitions in the HRS: Effects of the Subjective Probability of Retirement and of Pension Eligibility ER - TY - RPRT T1 - An Analysis of the Choice to Cash-Out, Maintain, or Annuitize Pension Rights at Job Change or Retirement Y1 - 1998 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Lee A. Lillard A1 - Panis, Constantijn KW - Pensions KW - Retirement Planning and Satisfaction PB - RAND UR - https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/drafts/2008/DRU1979.pdf U4 - Pension Plans/Retirement Planning ER - TY - RPRT T1 - Anchoring Effects in the HRS: Experimental and Nonexperimental Evidence Y1 - 1998 A1 - Michael D Hurd KW - Health Conditions and Status KW - Healthcare KW - Methodology KW - Retirement Planning and Satisfaction AB - The Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and a number of other major household surveys use unfolding brackets to reduce item nonresponse. However, the initial entry point into a bracketing sequence is likely to act as an anchor or point of reference to the respondent. For example, when the initial entry point is high the distribution will be shifted to the right, leading one to believe that holdings of the particular asset are greater than they truly are. This paper analyzes some experimental data on housing value from HRS wave 3 for anchoring effects. The paper also compares the distributions of assets in HRS waves 1 and 2 for evidence about any anchoring effects that may have been caused by changes in the entry points between the waves. Both the experimental data on housing values and the nonexperimental data from HRS waves 1 and 2 on assets show anchoring effects. JF - The National Bureau of Economic Research PB - National Bureau of Economic Research CY - Cambridge UR - https://www.nber.org/papers/t0219 N1 - ProCite field 8 : RAND Corporation and NBER U4 - Survey Methods/Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology/Computer Programs/Health Status/Retirement/Retirement Policies/Health/Retirement ER - TY - CHAP T1 - Consumption and Saving Balances of the Elderly: Experimental Evidence on Survey Response Bias T2 - Frontiers in the Economics of Aging Y1 - 1998 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Daniel McFadden A1 - Chand, Harish A1 - Gan, Li A1 - Merrill, Angela A1 - Michael Ewing Roberts ED - David A Wise KW - Consumption and Savings KW - Methodology AB - A prerequisite for understanding the economic behavior of the elderly, and the impacts of public policy on their health and well-being, is accurate data on key economic variables such as income, consumption, and assets, as well as on expectations regarding future economic and demographic events such as major health costs, disabilities, and death. Standard practice is to elicit such information in economic surveys, relying on respondents’ statements regarding the variables in question. Economists are generally aware that stated responses are noisy. Item nonresponse is a common problem, and carefully done surveys are designed to minimize it. Well-designed analyses of economic survey data are careful about detecting implausible outliers, imputing missing values, and correcting for selection caused by dropping missing observations. Circumstances are recognized that tend to produce systematic biases in response, such as telescoping in recall of past events that arises from the psychophysical perception of time intervals, or overstatement of charitable contributions that arises from the incentive to project a positive self-image. Nevertheless, economic studies are often too sanguine about the reliability of subjects’ statements regarding objective economic data. JF - Frontiers in the Economics of Aging PB - Univ. of Chicago Press CY - Chicago UR - https://www.nber.org/chapters/c7306 N1 - ProCite field 8 : ed. U4 - Consumption/Savings/Survey Methods JO - Consumption and Saving Balances of the Elderly: Experimental Evidence on Survey Response Bias ER - TY - RPRT T1 - The Effects of Bracketing and Anchoring on Measurement in the Health and Retirement Study Y1 - 1998 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Willard L Rodgers KW - Methodology PB - University of Michigan, Institute for Social Research U4 - Brackets/Survey Methods/Microeconomic Data Management/Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology ER - TY - CHAP T1 - Household Wealth of the Elderly under Alternative Imputation Procedures T2 - Inquiries in the economics of aging Y1 - 1998 A1 - Hoynes, Hilary A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Chand, Harish ED - David A Wise KW - Consumption and Savings KW - Demographics KW - Income KW - Net Worth and Assets KW - Retirement Planning and Satisfaction AB - Although many reach retirement with few resources except housing equity and a claim to social security and Medicare, financial wealth, nonetheless, makes an important contribution to the economic status of many of the elderly. Most of our up-to-date information about the wealth of the elderly is based on the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), which sometimes adds an asset module to its core survey. As in many surveys of assets, the rate of missing data on individual asset items is high, about 30 to 40 percent among those with the asset. This raises the issue of the reliability of SIPP wealth measures because respondents who refuse or are unable to give a value to an asset item may not be representative of the population. Indeed, in the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS) it is clear that asset data are not missing at random. Through the use of bracketing methods, which we will discuss below, the HRS was able to reduce the rate of missing asset data substantially, and the data that were added in this way increased mean wealth in the HRS by about 40 percent (Smith 1995). Furthermore, because the additional data increased the mean so much, they undoubtedly increased measures of wealth inequality. JF - Inquiries in the economics of aging PB - University of Chicago Press CY - Chicago and London UR - https://www.nber.org/chapters/c7088 IS - NBER Project Report series N1 - ProCite field[3]: U CA, Berkeley and NBER; SUNY, Stony Brook, RAND, and NBER; U CA, Berkeley U4 - Economics of the Elderly/Retirement/Retirement Policies/Personal Income and Wealth Distribution/Elderly/Wealth JO - Household Wealth of the Elderly under Alternative Imputation Procedures ER - TY - CHAP T1 - Subjective Survival Curves and Life Cycle Behavior T2 - Inquiries in the Economics of Aging Y1 - 1998 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Daniel McFadden A1 - Gan, Li ED - David A Wise KW - Consumption and Savings KW - Event History/Life Cycle KW - Health Conditions and Status JF - Inquiries in the Economics of Aging T3 - NBER Project Reports PB - University of Chicago Press CY - Chicago and London N1 - ProCite field[3]: SUNY, Stony Brook, RAND, and NBER; U CA, Berkeley and NBER; U CA, BerkeleyProCite field[6]: InProCite field[8]: ed. U4 - Intertemporal Consumer Choice/Life Cycle Models and Saving/Economics of the Elderly/Health Production--Nutrition, Mortality, Morbidity, Disability, and Economic Behavior/Life Cycle JO - Subjective Survival Curves and Life Cycle Behavior ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old: An overview of the AHEAD Study JF - The Journals of Gerontology, Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences Y1 - 1997 A1 - Beth J Soldo A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Willard L Rodgers A1 - Robert B Wallace KW - Adult children KW - Demographics KW - Health Conditions and Status KW - Healthcare KW - Income KW - Methodology KW - Net Worth and Assets AB - This article contains background information on the study of Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD), a prospective panel survey of persons born in 1923 or earlier who were residing in the community at the time of the 1993 baseline. Interviews were sought with both spouses in married households, and an overall total of 8,222 were completed. We review the interdisciplinary scientific issues that motivated the study, describe the fundamental design decisions that structured AHEAD, and summarize the content in the core and experimental modules. The study provides unusually detailed data on cognition, family structure and transfers, and assets. Data are presented on sample selections, response rates, and oversamples of minority groups. Basic descriptive data on the demographic, health, and socioeconomic attributes of respondents also are presented. Plans for future waves of AHEAD are described, including a next-of-kin interview for decreased respondents. PB - 52B VL - 52B IS - Spec U4 - HRS content and design/Aged, 80 and Over/Family/Female/Financing, Personal/Health Services/Utilization/Health Status/Income/Longitudinal Studies/Support, U.S. Government--PHS/United States ER - TY - CHAP T1 - The Impact of Demographics on Housing and Nonhousing Wealth in the United States T2 - The Economic Effects of Aging in the United States and Japan Y1 - 1997 A1 - Daniel McFadden A1 - Hoynes, Hilary ED - Naohiro Yashiro ED - Michael D Hurd KW - Demographics KW - Housing KW - Net Worth and Assets JF - The Economic Effects of Aging in the United States and Japan PB - University of Chicago Press CY - Chicago, IL N1 - ProCite field 8 : eds. U4 - Housing Equity/Wealth/Demographics JO - The Impact of Demographics on Housing and Nonhousing Wealth in the United States ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Medical insurance and the use of health care services by the elderly. JF - J Health Econ Y1 - 1997 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Kathleen McGarry KW - Activities of Daily Living KW - Aged KW - Health Care Surveys KW - Health Services for the Aged KW - Health Status Indicators KW - Hospitalization KW - Humans KW - Insurance, Health KW - Medicare KW - Office Visits KW - Patient Acceptance of Health Care KW - Private Sector KW - Probability KW - United States AB -

The objective of this paper is to find how health insurance influences the use of health care services by the elderly. On the basis of the first wave of the Asset and Health Dynamics Survey, we find that those who are the most heavily insured use the most health care services. Because our data show little relationship between observable health measures and either the propensity to hold or to purchase private insurance, we interpret this as an effect of the incentives embodied in the insurance, rather than as the result of adverse selection in the purchase of insurance.

PB - 16 VL - 16 UR - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10169091 IS - 2 U1 - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10169091?dopt=Abstract U4 - Health Status/Health Services/Economic Status ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Evaluation of the Subjective Probabilities of Survival in the Health and Retirement Study JF - Journal of Human Resources Y1 - 1995 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Kathleen McGarry KW - Consumption and Savings KW - Disabilities KW - Health Conditions and Status AB - In the Health and Retirement Study respondents were asked about the chances they would live to 75 or to 85. We analyze these responses to determine if they behave like probabilities of survival, if their averages are close to average probabilities in the population, and if they have correlations with other variables that are similar to correlations with actual mortality outcomes. We find that generally they do behave like probabilities and that they do aggregate to population probabilities. most remarkable, however, is that they covary with other variables in the same way actual outcomes vary with the variables. For example, respondents with higher socioeconomic status give higher probabilities of survival, whereas respondents who smoke give lower probabilities. We conclude that these measures of subjective probabilities have great potential use in models of intertemporal decision-making under uncertainty. PB - 30 VL - 30 N1 - ProCite field 3 : SUNY and NBER; UCLA and NBER U4 - Health Production/Nutrition/Mortality/Morbidity/Disability/Disability/Economic Behavior/Health/Mortality ER - TY - RPRT T1 - Evaluation of Subjective Probability Distributions in the HRS Y1 - 1993 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Kathleen McGarry KW - Consumption and Savings KW - Health Conditions and Status KW - Methodology AB - In the Health and Retirement Survey respondents were asked about the chances they would live to 75 or to 85, and the chances they would work after age 62 or 65. We analyze the responses to determine if they behave like probabilities, if their averages are close to average probabilities in the population, and if they have correlations with other variables that are similar to correlations with actual outcomes. We find that generally they do behave like probabilities and they do aggregate. Most remarkable, however, is that they covary with other variables in the same way actual outcomes vary with the variables. For example, smokers give lower probabilities of living to 75 than nonsmokers. We conclude that these measures of subjective probabilities have great potential use in models of intertemporal decision making under uncertainty. PB - National Bureau of Economic Research UR - https://www.nber.org/papers/w4560 N1 - ProCite field 8 : SUNY-Stony Brook and NBER; UCLA and NBER U4 - Microeconomic Data Management/Economics of the Elderly/Health Production--Nutrition, Mortality, Morbidity, Disability, and Economic Behavior ER - TY - RPRT T1 - The Relationship Between Job Characteristics and Retirement Y1 - 1993 A1 - Michael D Hurd A1 - Kathleen McGarry KW - Consumption and Savings KW - Employment and Labor Force KW - Pensions KW - Time Use AB - We study the influence of job characteristics on prospective retirement as measured by the probability of working past age 62 or 65. The characteristics fall into three broad classes: physical and mental requirements, job flexibility including employer accommodation to older workers, and financial aspects such as pensions and health care insurance. Using data from the Health and Retirement Survey, we find that physical and mental job requirements have a rather small influence on prospective retirement, whereas measures of job flexibility and financial aspects of the job are important determinants. PB - National Bureau of Economic Research UR - https://www.nber.org/papers/w4558 N1 - ProCite field 8 : SUNY-Stony Brook and NBER; UCLA and National Bureau of Econ U4 - Time Allocation--Work Behavior/Time Allocation--Labor Supply/Economics of the Elderly/Older Workers/Pension ER -