%0 Book Section %B Retirement Provision in Scary Markets %D 2007 %T Lifetime Earnings Variability and Retirement Shortfalls %A Olivia S. Mitchell %A John W R Phillips %A Au, Andrew %E Hazel Bateman %K Net Worth and Assets %B Retirement Provision in Scary Markets %I Edward Elgar %C Cheltenham:UK %P 78-99 %G eng %4 Retirement Wealth %$ 13112 %! Lifetime Earnings Variability and Retirement Shortfalls %0 Report %D 2004 %T Modeling Lifetime Earnings Paths: Hypothetical versus Actual Workers %A Olivia S. Mitchell %A John W R Phillips %A Au, Andrew %K Net Worth and Assets %K Pensions %K Social Security %X To assess the distributional effects of social security reform proposals, it is essential to have good information on real-world workers lifetime earnings trajectories. Until recently, however, policymakers have relied on hypothetical earnings profiles for policy analysis. We use actual lifetime earnings data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to compare actual workers covered earnings profiles to these hypothetical profiles. We show that the hypothetical profiles do not track earnings patterns of current retirees; thus lifetime pay levels are much higher than for most HRS workers. Therefore, using hypothetical profiles could misrepresent benefits paid and taxes collected under such reforms. %I University of Pennsylvania, Boettner Center for Pe, Pension Research Council WP 2004-3 %G eng %L wp_2004/Mitchell_etal_WP2004-3.pdf %4 Pensions/Retirement Wealth/Social Security %$ 13992 %0 Report %D 2003 %T Lifetime Earnings Variability and Retirement Wealth %A Olivia S. Mitchell %A John W R Phillips %A Au, Andrew %A McCarthy, David %K Income %K Net Worth and Assets %X This paper explores how earnings variability is related to retirement wealth. Past research has demonstrated that the average American household on the verge of retirement would need to save substantially more, in order to preserve consumption flows in old age. While several socioeconomic factors have been examined that might explain such problems, prior studies have not assessed the role of earnings variability over the lifetime as a potential explanation for poor retirement prospects. Thus two workers having identical levels of average lifetime earnings might have had very different patterns of earnings variability over their lifetimes. Such differences could translate into quite different retirement wealth outcomes. This paper evaluates the effect of earnings variability on retirement wealth using information supplied by respondents to the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). This is a rich and nationally representative dataset on Americans on the verge of retirement, with responses linked to administrative records from the Social Security Administration. Our research illuminates the key links between lifetime earnings variability and retirement wealth. %B Michigan Retirement Research Center Research Working Paper %I Michigan Retirement Research Center at the University of Michigan, %C Ann Arbor, MI %G eng %4 Income Variability/Retirement Wealth %$ 12182 %R https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1091441 %0 Report %D 2003 %T Retirement Wealth and Lifetime Earnings Variability %A Olivia S. Mitchell %A John W R Phillips %A Au, Andrew %A McCarthy, David %K Net Worth and Assets %K Social Security %X This paper explores understand how earnings variability influences peoples’ retirement preparedness by influencing their accumulated wealth levels as of retirement age. Prior research has demonstrated that the US average household nearing retirement would need to save substantially more in order to preserve consumption in old age. While some socioeconomic factors have been suggested that might explain shortfalls, previous studies have not assessed the role of earnings variability over the lifetime as a potential explanation for poor retirement prospects. Thus two workers having identical levels of average lifetime earnings might have had very different patterns of earnings variability over their lifetimes. Such differences could translate into quite different retirement wealth outcomes. We evaluate the effect of earnings variability on retirement wealth using information supplied by respondents to the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). This is a rich and nationally representative dataset on Americans on the verge of retirement, with responses linked to administrative records from the Social Security Administration. Our research illuminates key links between lifetime earnings variability and retirement wealth. %B Pension Research Council Publications %I University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School %C Philadelphia %G eng %U https://pensionresearchcouncil.wharton.upenn.edu/publications/papers-2018/retirement-wealth-and-lifetime-earnings-variability/ %L wp_2003/Mitchell_etal.pdf %4 Retirement Wealth/Earnings and Benefits File %$ 11582