%0 Journal Article %J Journal of Econometrics %D 2015 %T Subjective mortality risk and bequests %A Gan, Li %A Gong, Guan %A Michael D Hurd %A Daniel McFadden %K Bequests %K Mortality %K Older Adults %X This paper investigates the ability of subjective expectations about life expectancy to predict wealth holding patterns in later life. Based on panel data from the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old, we estimate a structural life-cycle model with bequests. Each individual’s subjective survival rates in the future are estimated with data on his belief of survival probabilities to a target age. This estimation is build upon a Bayesian updating method developed in Gan et al. (2005). We find that life-cycle model using subjective survival rates performs better than using life-table survival rates in predicting wealth holdings. This result suggests that subjective survival expectations play an important role in deciding consumption and savings. In addition, the estimation results show that most bequests are involuntary or accidental. %B Journal of Econometrics %V 188 %P 514 - 525 %8 Jan-10-2015 %G eng %N 2 %! Journal of Econometrics %R 10.1016/j.jeconom.2015.03.015 %0 Book Section %B Inquiries in the Economics of Aging %D 1998 %T Subjective Survival Curves and Life Cycle Behavior %A Michael D Hurd %A Daniel McFadden %A Gan, Li %E David A Wise %K Consumption and Savings %K Event History/Life Cycle %K Health Conditions and Status %B Inquiries in the Economics of Aging %S NBER Project Reports %I University of Chicago Press %C Chicago and London %P 259 -305 %G eng %4 Intertemporal Consumer Choice/Life Cycle Models and Saving/Economics of the Elderly/Health Production--Nutrition, Mortality, Morbidity, Disability, and Economic Behavior/Life Cycle %$ 1012 %! Subjective Survival Curves and Life Cycle Behavior