The Risk of Financial Hardship in Retirement: A Cohort Analysis

This paper explores the likely prevalence of hardship in old age for individuals now nearing retirement. We
use two decades of longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study to determine what observable
demographic, socioeconomic, and financial factors in late middle age predicted economic hardship in old
age for the cohort that was nearing retirement age in the mid-1990s. It then uses these findings to predict
economic hardship in old age for the cohort nearing retirement age in the mid-2010s. Our analysis
suggests that the more recent cohort is likely to realize higher economic insecurity, particularly among
men.