Preoperative Factors Predict Memory Decline After Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting or Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in an Epidemiological Cohort of Older Adults.

Background Durable memory decline may occur in older adults after surgical (coronary artery bypass grafting [CABG]) or nonsurgical (percutaneous coronary intervention) coronary revascularization. However, it is unknown whether individual memory risk can be predicted. We reanalyzed an epidemiological cohort of older adults to predict memory decline at ≈1 year after revascularization. Methods and Results We studied Health and Retirement Study participants who underwent CABG or percutaneous coronary intervention at age ≥65 years between 1998 and 2015 and participated in ≥1 biennial postprocedure assessment. Using a memory score based on direct and proxy cognitive tests, we identified participants whose actual postprocedure memory score was 1-2 ("mild") or >2 ("major") SDs below expected postprocedure performance. We modeled probability of memory decline using logistic regression on preoperatively known factors and evaluated model discrimination and calibration. A total of 1390 participants (551 CABG, 839 percutaneous coronary intervention) underwent CABG/percutaneous coronary intervention at 75±6 years old; 40% were women. The cohort was 83% non-Hispanic White, 8.4% non-Hispanic Black, 6.4% Hispanic ethnicity, and 1.7% from other groups masked by the HRS (Health and Retirement Study) to preserve participant confidentiality. At a median of 1.1 (interquartile range, 0.6-1.6) years after procedure, 267 (19%) had mild memory decline and 88 (6.3%) had major memory decline. Factors predicting memory decline included older age, frailty, and off-pump CABG; obesity was protective. The optimism-corrected area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was 0.73 (95% CI, 0.71-0.77). A cutoff of 50% probability of memory decline identified 14% of the cohort as high risk, and was 94% specific and 30% sensitive for late memory decline. Conclusions Preoperative factors can be used to predict late memory decline after coronary revascularization in an epidemiological cohort with high specificity.