Actuarial aspects of subjective survival probabilities with applications in insurance pricing

Subjective survival probabilities reflect individuals’ views about own future survival and they vary based on socio-demographic factors. Actuaries and demographers use parametric survival models, often calibrated on population mortality data, to capture and interpret mortality trends. Recent research highlights the importance of considering subjective survival beliefs in mortality studies. In the same spirit, this work aims to evaluate the applicability of subjective survival probabilities in insurance pricing. More specifically, the proposed methodology focuses on the construction of subjective survival tables for pricing insurance products based on various parametric modelling approaches. Our results indicate that subjective survival probabilities contain information useful for predicting actual mortality and pricing life insurance products for the U.S. population. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to European Actuarial Journal Association 2025.