A Comparison of Subjective Expectations Elicitation Methods in the HRS, PSID, and SEE

TitleA Comparison of Subjective Expectations Elicitation Methods in the HRS, PSID, and SEE
Publication TypeReport
Year of Publication1996
AuthorsDominitz, J
InstitutionUniversity of Michigan
Call Numberwp_1996/Dominitz_hr96-043.pdf
KeywordsExpectations, Methodology
Abstract

This paper examines subjective expectations data collected by three different (United States) national surveys which utilize varying methods of subjective probability elicitation. The results of the analysis contribute to the accumulating body of evidence that researchers who wish to obtain direct reports of an individual's expectations can and should elicit subjective probabilities rather than adopt more traditional survey methods for eliciting expectations. Using the Health and Retirement Study wave 2 survey data to build on previous findings validating the wave 1 expectations data, I find that reported expectations are stable over time, despite what appears to be a substantial change in the question format. Analysis of subjective probability data collected in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the Survey of Economic Expectations reveals that data quality may be further enhanced by revising the questions asked of survey respondents.

URLhttp://www.psc.isr.umich.edu/pubs/series.html hr
Endnote Keywords

Subjective expectations/Elicitation methods

Endnote ID

6518

Citation Key5324