Probabilistic Thinking and Early Social Security Claiming

This study analyzes the extent to which an individual.s survival expectations influence his or her decision to claim social security benefits at an early age. We find that subjective survival probabilities capture meaningful behavioral responses to incentives for early Social Security claiming when they are purged of measurement error using risk factors as instruments. Among people who are still working at age 62, those who expect to live longer are likely to delay claiming of Social Security benefits to a degree that is both statistically and economically significant.

Probability/Social Security benefit claiming/Early Retirement

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