Understanding the Economic Consequences of Shifting Trends in Population Health

TitleUnderstanding the Economic Consequences of Shifting Trends in Population Health
Publication TypeReport
Year of Publication2008
AuthorsGoldman, D, Lakdawalla, DN, Michaud, P-C, Zheng, Y
KeywordsEmployment and Labor Force, Expectations, Health Conditions and Status, Healthcare, Methodology, Public Policy

Much attention has focused on the economic consequences of increased life expectancy and demographic aging in the years to come. However, the economic burden of shifting trends in population health remains uncertain. Sustained increases in obesity, diabetes, and other diseases could reduce life expectancy with a concomitant decrease in the annuity burden but these savings may be offset by worsening functional status that increases health care spending, reduces labor supply, and increases public assistance. We attempt to quantify the economic consequences of shifting trends in population health in an international context by contrasting US and European health. We then use microsimulation to model medical care costs, labor supply, earnings, wealth, tax revenues, and government expenditures (including Social Security and income assistance). This simulation is used to compare outcomes under a variety of population health scenarios.

Endnote Keywords

Cross Cultural Comparison/life Expectancy/Functional Status/health care spending/public assistance/labor Supply/government expenditures

Endnote ID


Citation Key5727