Dívida das famílias : uma analise para a Europa (HRS) e EUA (SHARE) para 2006 e 2010

This dissertation investigates the evolution and determinants of the household debts in the United States of America (USA) and also in Europe (EU), before and after the beginning of the financial crises. The amounts and the debt incidence (mortgage and nonmortgage) were compared for the two years observed (2006/07 and 2010). After the presentation and discussion of the relevant literature, the determinants that had influence on the indebtedness in the USA and the EU were empirically tested based on the data from Health And Retirement Study (HRS) wave 8 (2006) and wave 10 (2010) and Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) wave 2 (2006) and wave 4 (2010). As the objective is to verify alterations in the individual behavior in the periods pre and post crises, this alteration was analyzed through the observation of the same individual on both moments in time. Various specifications of the Probit model were tested where the dependent variable assumed the value of "one" or "zero" corresponding to the exist of debt or not. The study was conducted taking under consideration the whole set of debts (liability) and also for each type of debt in the European.( Overdue bills, Debt on cars and other vehicles, Debt on credit cards, Loans, Debts to relatives or friends and Student loans ) and the north American case (mortgage and nonmortgage). The EU average debt amount is higher than the USA in both years, suffering an increase from 2006 to 2010, while in the USA it stayed constant, however, the percentage of individuals with any kind of debt stayed similar in both years and both analyzed regions. The results suggest that in the EU, after the crises, was verified a change on the weight of each debt source, with a trade off between the decreasing search of formal financial institutions and the rise of informal debt, obtained from family and friends. The estimated model results show that the age, the in log wealth, the financial risk aversion, marriage and financial savings in general have a negative effect in debt acquirement. On the other hand, having a mortgage, the education (number of years) and having children has a positive effect on debt acquirement. The factors that explain different kinds of debt differ in the analyzed regions and years, noticing that the children"s variable, the health state, education and marriage are exclusively meaningful and present in the EU, opposing the USA, where they show no statistical relevance.

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