The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival

TitleThe Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2002
AuthorsHurd, MD, McGarry, K
JournalThe Economic Journal
KeywordsExpectations, Methodology

Although expectations, or more precisely subjective probability distributions, play a prominent role in models of decision making under uncertainty, we have had very little data on them. Based on panel data from the Health and Retirement Study, we study the evolution of subjective survival probabilities and their ability to predict actual mortality. In panel, respondents modify their survival probabilities in response to new information such as the onset of a new disease condition. Subjective survival probabilities predict actual survival: those who survived in the panel reported survival probabilities approximately 50 greater at baseline than those who died.


ProCite field 19 : NBER

Endnote Keywords

Survival/Subjective Probability

Endnote ID


Citation Key6798