Social Security Replacement Rates for Alternative Earnings Benchmarks

Social Security reform proposals are often presented in terms of their differential impacts on hypothetical or example workers. This article explores how different benchmarks produce different replacement rate outcomes. The authors use the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) from the University of Michigan to evaluate how Social Security benefit replacement rates differ for actual versus hypothetical earner profiles, and examine whether these findings are sensitive to alternative definitions of replacement rates. They conclude that more precise analyses of possible distributional patterns from Social Security reform proposals would follow if benefit estimates were derived from actual earnings profiles, rather than hypothetical scaled patterns.