Racial and ethnic differences in hypertension risk: new diagnoses after age 50.

OBJECTIVES: Our study examines the differences in estimated risk of developing hypertension in Whites, Blacks, and Mexican-Americans aged > or = 50 for a period of 11 years.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Data came from 9,259 respondents who reported being hypertension-free at the baseline in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) with up to five time intervals (1998-2006). Discrete-time survival models were used to analyze ethnic variations in the probability of developing hypertension.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Estimated odds of developing hypertension.

RESULTS: The risk of newly diagnosed hypertension increased between 1995 and 2006 for HRS participants aged > or = 50. After adjusting for demographic and health status, the probability of incident hypertension among Black Americans was .10 during the period of 1995/96-1998, which increased steadily to .17 in 2004-2006, with cumulative incidence over the 11-year period at 51%. In contrast, among White Americans the risk was .07 during 1995/96-1998 and .13 in 2004-2006, with cumulative incidence at 43%. For Mexican-Americans, the probability also increased from .08 during 1995/ 96-1998 to .14 during 2004-2006, with cumulative incidence at 42%.

CONCLUSIONS: Relative to White and Mexican-Americans, Black Americans had an elevated risk of incident hypertension throughout the 11-year period of observation. These variations persisted even when differences in health behaviors, socioeconomic status, demographic, and time-varying health characteristics were accounted for.