Predictors of Mortality Up to 1 Year After Emergency Major Abdominal Surgery in Older Adults.

TitlePredictors of Mortality Up to 1 Year After Emergency Major Abdominal Surgery in Older Adults.
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2015
AuthorsCooper, Z, Mitchell, SL, Gorges, RJean, Rosenthal, RA, Lipsitz, SR, Kelley, A
JournalJ Am Geriatr Soc
Date Published2015 Dec
ISSN Number1532-5415

OBJECTIVES: To identify factors associated with mortality in older adults 30, 180, and 365 days after emergency major abdominal surgery.

DESIGN: A retrospective study linked to Medicare claims from 2000 to 2010.

SETTING: Health and Retirement Study (HRS).

PARTICIPANTS: Medicare beneficiaries aged 65.5 enrolled in the HRS from 2000 to 2010 with at least one urgent or emergency major abdominal surgery and a core interview from the HRS within 3 years before surgery.

MEASUREMENTS: Survival analysis was used to describe all-cause mortality 30, 180, and 365 days after surgery. Complementary log-log regression was used to identify participant characteristics and postoperative events associated with poorer survival.

RESULTS: Four hundred individuals had one of the urgent or emergency surgeries of interest, 24% of whom were aged 85 and older, 50% had coronary artery disease, 48% had cancer, 33% had congestive heart failure, and 37% experienced a postoperative complication. Postoperative mortality was 20% at 30 days, 31% at 180 days, and 34% at 365 days. Of those aged 85 and older, 50% were dead 1 year after surgery. After multivariate adjustment including postoperative complications, dementia (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.24-3.31), hospitalization within 6 months before surgery (HR = 1.63, 95% CI = 1.12-2.28), and complications (HR = 3.45, 95% CI = 2.32-5.13) were independently associated with worse 1-year survival.

CONCLUSION: Overall mortality is high in many older adults up to 1 year after undergoing emergency major abdominal surgery. The occurrence of a complication is the clinical factor most strongly associated with worse survival.

User Guide Notes

Endnote Keywords

Mortality/surgical complications/survival analysis/geriatric surgery/emergency surgery/major abdominal surgery/Complications and side effects/Patient outcomes/Dementia/Coronary heart disease

Endnote ID


Alternate JournalJ Am Geriatr Soc
Citation Key8246
PubMed ID26661929
PubMed Central IDPMC4688175
Grant ListK23 AG040774 / AG / NIA NIH HHS / United States
K24 AG033640 / AG / NIA NIH HHS / United States
R03 AG042361 / AG / NIA NIH HHS / United States