Accounting for the process of disablement and longitudinal outcomes among the near elderly and elderly

Using a new disability measure applicable to both the near elderly and elderly population, we track respondents aged 51–61 in 1992 from the Health and Retirement Study and account for their status over 20 years. We demonstrate that to screen in as disabled and to screen out as nondisabled require different analytic strategies and use multiple indicators to establish three groups: disabled, nondisabled, and a residual category with ambiguous status. We use work-disability and Supplemental Security Income/Disability Insurance (SSI/DI) receipt for testing distributional outcomes and assessing face validity of our disability measure. Selective attrition due to death and institutionalization is substantial over 20 years. Persistent disability is the dominant adverse outcome of initial disability shock. Overtime exits due to death become progressively more important; 44% disabled at baseline are dead by Wave 11 compared to 21% for nondisabled. Disability status at baseline is associated with financial insecurity persisting to Wave 11 among survivors. © 2016, © The Author(s) 2016.